Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Solars: Positions Determination

The solar stocks are in correction and most have just started. However, two were up yesterday, indicating either they may have completed or at least finished a first leg of their correction. This analysis seeks to determine where they are using two tools: channels based on linear regressions and retracements using Fibonacci levels. These are explained in the links, so a basic understanding is assumed in the following analyzes.

APWR seems the most mature of the corrections, so is presented first to allow following issues to be compared. Please, note that APWR has already passed through its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and retested each after its passage. Note, too, its position within the linear regression channels (in black) running since APWR's gap upward in early April. APWR is now relatively low in this channel, indicating a potential for reversal and movement higher. It has also approached a resistance line and the lower Bollinger line--with the Bollinger bands narrowing in a Bollinger Squeeze.

APWR's 60-minute graph shows its correction in detail, where it has now honored the 38.2% retracement level exactly. It has also undergone an ABC correction, often seen before stocks resume upward movement. Adversely, to reach the 38% level, APWR breached its lower long-term channel and upward trendlines, and is now preparing to return within them or is simply retesting them before starting a new downward trend. Today's trading may provide an answer to which will be.

SOL finishes its third day of correction by a small gain, but the shortness of the correction makes final completion suspect at best. It remains in the upper half of its channel, supporting that suspicion. It recently crossed its 200-day moving average, gapping over it, a sign of strength, but has yet to retest it. That may be in progress now. Other levels being approached are the 20-day centering moving average of the Bollinger bands as well as the linear regression line itself.

SOL's 60-minute graph shows it has reached the 38% retracement level of the upward trend starting in early May. After achieving the 38% level, it broke upward, out of its short-term correction channel. Note, too, the 38% level is also a successful retest of a gap up experienced June 5. The gap, an indicator of strength, especially after successful retest, expanded SOL's upward channel. The question to be determined is whether the correction is complete or whether it will be repeated in a few days. In other words, have we completed the A leg of an ABC correction and started the B leg? We should know in a few days.

LDK just completed a runup from retesting its 50-day moving average to its upper channel line. It is now two-days into correction, touching a resistance line. Note, waning volume on this correction indicates the sell off is merely profit taking of traders. Here, again, because of the shortness of the correction-to-date, one suspects it has not run its course. The high position in the channels and above the centering moving average of the Bollinger bands supports that suspicion. However, its 200-day moving average approaches in the top of the graph, and may prove a sufficient attractor to generate another leg up to the upper channel line, perhaps when it and the 200-day moving average coincide.

LDK's 60-minute graph shows LDK has achieved the 38% retracement level for two differing-timeframe movements, but remains within its short-term correction channel. A breakout upwards or breakdown beneath should come today.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
06/15/09; 08:30: APWR reported earnings of $0.04 per share down from $0.14 per share in this quarter from the previous year. We now have the answer of whether APWR is going up or down.

No comments:

Post a Comment