STP is breaking out of a pennant on the hourly chart (right). Note, too, it appears to be forming a cup, but without indication of a handle, yet. The target for the pennant break out is 25. 
07/28/09; 16:25: Would appear the market is going into a correction for the last two weeks of upward movement. Illustrates the reason for stop losses, and will shortly provide a better entry. The correction should run for approximately one week. Today was the breakdown of the channels, with a retest this afternoon.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Large-Cap Index (SPX) nears the top of its channel, indicating an end to pause days. It may take a half-day excursion up to its longer-term, upper, darker channel line, but then the shorter-term channel runs out of room within the longer-term channel. SPX then should turn down. It is now below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and it would appear entering the long-awaited 10-15% correction. 
The left-hand, daily graph shows LDK approaching its lower channel boundary, thus good to rise, again, market permitting. The right-hand, hourly graph shows a breakout, with the stock, again, at a low position in the shorter-term channel. If the market meanders sideways for the half-day left before its short-term channel runs out of room within the longer-term channel, LDK may rise, but when the market turns down in earnest, it will, too. 
Somewhere around 11:20, the market overcame the old longer-term trend line, and went higher in the short-term channel. So much for predictions.... [sheepish grin]
The solar stocks are in correction and most have just started. However, two were up yesterday, indicating either they may have completed or at least finished a first leg of their correction. This analysis seeks to determine where they are using two tools: channels based on linear regressions and retracements using Fibonacci levels. These are explained in the links, so a basic understanding is assumed in the following analyzes. 
APWR seems the most mature of the corrections, so is presented first to allow following issues to be compared. Please, note that APWR has already passed through its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and retested each after its passage. Note, too, its position within the linear regression channels (in black) running since APWR's gap upward in early April. APWR is now relatively low in this channel, indicating a potential for reversal and movement higher. It has also approached a resistance line and the lower Bollinger line--with the Bollinger bands narrowing in a Bollinger Squeeze. 
APWR's 60-minute graph shows its correction in detail, where it has now honored the 38.2% retracement level exactly. It has also undergone an ABC correction, often seen before stocks resume upward movement. Adversely, to reach the 38% level, APWR breached its lower long-term channel and upward trendlines, and is now preparing to return within them or is simply retesting them before starting a new downward trend. Today's trading may provide an answer to which will be.
SOL finishes its third day of correction by a small gain, but the shortness of the correction makes final completion suspect at best. It remains in the upper half of its channel, supporting that suspicion. It recently crossed its 200-day moving average, gapping over it, a sign of strength, but has yet to retest it. That may be in progress now. Other levels being approached are the 20-day centering moving average of the Bollinger bands as well as the linear regression line itself.
SOL's 60-minute graph shows it has reached the 38% retracement level of the upward trend starting in early May. After achieving the 38% level, it broke upward, out of its short-term correction channel. Note, too, the 38% level is also a successful retest of a gap up experienced June 5. The gap, an indicator of strength, especially after successful retest, expanded SOL's upward channel. The question to be determined is whether the correction is complete or whether it will be repeated in a few days. In other words, have we completed the A leg of an ABC correction and started the B leg? We should know in a few days.
LDK just completed a runup from retesting its 50-day moving average to its upper channel line. It is now two-days into correction, touching a resistance line. Note, waning volume on this correction indicates the sell off is merely profit taking of traders. Here, again, because of the shortness of the correction-to-date, one suspects it has not run its course. The high position in the channels and above the centering moving average of the Bollinger bands supports that suspicion. However, its 200-day moving average approaches in the top of the graph, and may prove a sufficient attractor to generate another leg up to the upper channel line, perhaps when it and the 200-day moving average coincide.
LDK's 60-minute graph shows LDK has achieved the 38% retracement level for two differing-timeframe movements, but remains within its short-term correction channel. A breakout upwards or breakdown beneath should come today.
06/15/09; 08:30: APWR reported earnings of $0.04 per share down from $0.14 per share in this quarter from the previous year. We now have the answer of whether APWR is going up or down.
APWR shows a candlestick hammer after a downward movement, usually a sign the downward movement has ended. It coincidentally ended near the centering moving average of its Bollinger bands. This reveral candle pattern also happened on a dramatic increase in volume.
The 60-minute graph shows the downward movement ended at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, with the subsequent recovery on increased volume. Price is now approaching both a long-term uptrend line, violated during the correction, and the downtrend line of the correction underway since June 2. 
APWR enjoys an earnings growth of 197% and is over 400%% off its bottom. It experienced a pennant, which was also a high, tight flag, and is now retesting that level. The retest reached a level of 12.20, while the high point of the pennant was 11.80, but close enough. Volume has been fading on the retest, verifying this is indeed but a retest with a lack of sellers. The uptrend line reaches the 12.20 level today, another verification of this is the short-term bottom. 
This retracement on a 15-minute graph, shows a tight downtrend following mostly within channel drawn from a linear regression. It has only two errant data excursions outside the channels. The breakout, on volume, occurred during the early afternoon, Tuesday, June 9. After the initial burst, price faltered for the balance of the day.
A 60-minute graph of the retest breakout provides insight into the breakout. The pause coincides with a trendline drawn from the high through the high errant data point, and price hovers at trendline. Note, too, on this graph, the retest price at the bottom honored both the downtrend channel lines and the longer-term uptrend channel. This indicates a rather well-behaved stock, which is nice to trade. Also note, the breakout of the retest channels was on higher volume, with the subsequent pause at lower volume, indicating an authentic breakout. 
Another 60-minute graph shows retracement of the retest down trend, giving another indication of a well behaved issue. It popped to the 50% retracement of the retest downtrend, then paused between the 50% and 38.2% levels. A retest is possible of the bottom upchannel line, now at 12.60 and rising toward 13.00 at end-of-day Wednesday. More probable, the price will break out of the downtrend line containing yesterday's breakout, a definite buy signal, especially if occurs with expected dramatically higher volume. 
STP is experiencing one of several patterns currently, all of which indicate a higher future. It can also be interpreted as retesting the breakout of a pennant, which is also a high, tight flag pattern. A high, tight flag is a pennant (triangle) or flag (rectangle) that follows doubling of price in a period of two months or less. Before entering the pennant, STP rose from 5.09 to 15.45, easily qualifying. Target calculation for the high, tight flag is (15.45-5.09)+12.03=22.39. 
If interpreted as a cup-with-handle, an interesting phenomenon occurs--the handle is a smaller-scale cup-with-handle. The 18.28 level indicates both a breakout from the cup-with-handle and previous day was a close above the 200-day moving average. Target for the cup-with-handle calculates as (18.28-12.35)*50%+18.28=21.24. That becomes the most conservative target of the many. Fading volume during the handle indicates a lack of sellers, thus will be a buy indication when price jumps on increased volume. The single spike making the 18.28 price could be judge as a spurious data point, meaning the bulk of the data around 17.75 would be a better indicator for a buy signal--especially if the level breaches on higher volume.
LDK shows a move up from its low (3.75) in early March to a high (11.55), then went into a pennant. It has since broken out of the pennant, retested it, and now shows a Bollinger squeeze. On Balance Volume leads to a new high, although Accumulation/Distribution disagrees. 
The 60-minute graph shows the same, with increased detail. It exhibits a new short-term trendline paralleling the previous uptrend line. We are at the buy point, awaiting only an upturn at most, preferably with higher volume. 
P&F Target % calculated as (Target Price/Current Price - 1). Interesting that it supports the other analysis; i.e., APWR is tops.
The top five issues up in Friday's trading were solars. Having at least some solars among the day's highest performers is not uncommon, and they often enjoy double-digit percentage appreciation. The question is: How can one predict which will perform next?
SOL, up 15% in one day, has a number of days of performance over 10%, as shown by the ROC(1) in the top band. In the trend starting May 26, it has move up 2-3 days, taken a pause day, then resumed its climb. That would indicate a possible pause day Monday or Tuesday, potentially allowing one to prepare to take a position early the following morning. 
However, this channel of SOL's performance of this short-term trend shows prices near the upper channel line, so SOL may go into a correction, if it hasn't already. One would be better served perhaps by awaiting another approach of the lower channel line it has honored in the past three dips during this trend.
CSUN shows a channel since its March, with its current position in the middle of the channel rather than close to a top channel line. Further, it has just moved above its 200-day moving average on increased volume. It also appears to be coming out of a moderate Bollinger squeeze, another bullish indication. 
However, the 60-minute graph with a short-term channel shows CSUN at the top of the channel, indicating at least a pause day before it resumes. On this short-term graph a pause day may take price down to the center line, or two days, to lower channel line. 
APWR, the third highest performer since its March bottom, was the bottom-most performer of the day. It is in a short-term correction, so may be approaching a buy point. It closed at 13.19, while the upper channel line appears at 16 and rising.
APWR's 60-minute graph indeed shows it near the lower channel line, perhaps a day away, or even close enough to touch it in early, even pre-market, trading, then turn upward. The lower channel line is within one point, while the upper channel line is rising toward 17. APWR, once it turns, provides the best reward:risk ratio, especially if it touches the lower channel lines. One can even set a limit order to ambush it should it touch, then set a stop-loss order under the lower channel line for a very small risk.
