Monday, March 30, 2009

Mathematics Again

Before I retired the first time, I thought once retired, I would learn mathematics, truly learn. I never got around to it, so I will try again now that I am retired, again ("retired, again" sounds redundant somehow; i.e., "tired again, again." Some days I live down to that.). I started today by purchasing a self-teaching mathematics book, plus two more physics books ("A physicist is a mathematician with a feeling for realty." ~ Norman Packard).

The reasons for this passion are several.

First: Of four children, three are in school learning new things. I feel left out, a slacker. I've also discovered the local college has a senior project that is about learning, but it doesn't recycle semesters, years, whatever, until July. That seems a long way away.

Second: It's good for self-discipline, and that I perceive after too many decades as one of my chief problems. I have an outer persona that appears dedicated and over achieving, but I live on the inside where I know different.

Third: Anyone not knowing mathematics is really illiterate, and I really feel that way when reading physics, etc. It's a major hole in my education (I said "a," not "the") and one I would heal over. I dislike feeling illiterate almost as bad as being illiterate.

Should some future entries become even more "glaze-'em-over" topics than already, you know the reason. If I am really good, I'll see about turning the topics into "programmed instruction" as spoken of in a previous entry. It's only fair I put production where my mouth was. If not too time consuming, I shall. Hopefully it will help those who like me made it through high school mathematics with lots of holes (mostly from not attending the topic in class and homework). The effort makes up some negative karma perhaps, but the real karmic costs were the opportunities left unavailable.

Audacibus adnue cœptis. ~ Virgil, Aeneid
(Favor daring undertakings.)

Saturday, March 28, 2009

EMP~ishly Unthinkable Thoughts

Two nations involved in developing nuclear capabilities, now turn to thoughts of orbital capabilities, making one wonder why. The answer isn’t pretty.

Simple, really. With orbital capability, everywhere on earth is within range, no longer just their next-door neighbor or those within ICBM range. Further, they need not target a city such as New York, Washington, San Francisco, or Los Angeles, but with a single, nominal detonation can disable the entire country. The secret is electromagnetic pulse, or EMP.

North Korea recently tested two nuclear devices, both of which could at best be described as fizzles. A nuclear fizzle is a bomb that doesn’t achieve full capability, but partially explodes. They are now preparing a missile to place a “communications satellite” in orbit.

Iran may not have the same fizzle problem since the head of the Pakistani atomic bomb project gave the plans for building it to Iran. He has recently been released from house arrest for his unauthorized sharing. Now, the first intelligence assessment after Bush was no longer in office is that Iran now has sufficient weapons grade material to construct a bomb. The previous assessment was they wouldn’t have sufficient material for years indicating perhaps that intelligence conclusions were based more on internal politics rather than enemy assessment. Scary.

Iran, too, has expressed interest in developing a space program, rather than just missile testing as before.

An Iranian political-military journal, in an article entitled “Electronics To Determine Fate Of Future Wars,” suggests that the key to defeating the United States is EMP attack: “Advanced information technology equipment exists which has a very high degree of efficiency in warfare. Among these we can refer to communication and information gathering satellites, pilotless planes, and the digital system.... Once you confuse the enemy communication network you can also disrupt the work of the enemy command and decision-making center. Even worse, today when you disable a country’s military high command through disruption of communications you will, in effect, disrupt all the affairs of that country.... If the world’s industrial countries fail to devise effective ways to defend themselves against dangerous electronic assaults, then they will disintegrate within a few years.... American soldiers would not be able to find food to eat nor would they be able to fire a single shot.” (Tehran, Nashriyeh-e Siasi Nezami, December 1998 -January 1999)

North Korean academic writings subscribe to the view voiced in Chinese, Russian, and Iranian writings that computers and advanced communications have inaugurated an “information age” during which the greatest strength, and greatest vulnerability, of societies will be their electronic infrastructures. According to North Korean press, Chairman Kim Chong-il is himself supposedly an avid proponent of this view. (M. A. Kim Sang-hak, “development of Information Industry and Construction of Powerful Socialist State,” Pyongyang Kyongje Yongu, 20 May 2002)

The above is from 2005 Senate subcommittee testimony. But, can a small yield weapon of a magnitude similar to the bombs used on Japan be a sufficiently effective EMP generator. Ironically atomic bombs are much more efficient than hydrogen weapons, so a 10-kiloton plutonium bomb generates 40% of the EMP of a 1-megaton fusion weapon. A 10-kiloton weapon is approximately one-half the yield of the “Fat Man” plutonium weapon used on Nagasaki in August 1945. A 10-kiloton weapon can also be constructed to maximumize the EMP, thus increasing effectiveness above the 40% level.

The effect of such a weapon would be widespread destruction of electronic devices such as digital TVs, computers, cell phones and their networks, electronic ignitions and car computers. Your bank or credit union will not only not know your balance, but won’t know you, until they have replaced their computer and recovered from their backup tapes that were hopefully stored in an EMP-shielded environment. The power and communications grids will go down and will not come back up until a majority of the components are replaced. Many of the transformers of the power grid may require up to two years to manufacture before they are available for replacement.

The new “smart” grid will be even more vulnerable. To bring it down may only require a thousand dollars of equipment operated by an enemy or just unfriendly hacker. That’s progress.

Notice how many in the media say nothing of this threat when discussing the pending North Korea missile test. Instead, we hear about "hitting Alaska." Perhaps it stems from the rumor that media majors are not allowed sufficient education in any other area to qualify them for a minor. It shows often, true or not!

As for my government, this topic seems to have gotten no higher than some subcommittee hearings, and there seems no action to even stock the transformers requiring years to replace. They are as good at circuses as any Roman emperor, but I have no faith they can deliver the bread, judging from their Katrina response.

Personally, one cannot take significant measures to offset one's risk against this. I live in a sufficiently remote community to expect being near the last of the two-year wait for power, and have doubts that, having lost so much infrastructure, replacement transformers can be manufactured in two years. I cannot store enough canned goods to last two years, or defend them if I could. All I can do is assure my Kevorkian kit is updated, and have enough canned goods to be pleasantly surprised should I be wrong about my government. I would like to last at least enough to learn the response perpetrated upon the villain nation.

The logical government action seems: Back channel the two nations embarking on their course, that they had best cease and desist from these actions and make us believe they in fact had. If not, they should not only expect a response to an attack that would convert their countries into glass-paved, self-lighting parking lots, but just as certain expect a preemptive strike sufficient to prevent an attack. Such a strike will not only destroy their means to mount an EMP attack--it will include the economic means of their country to finance further efforts.

Unfortunately, I doubt my government has the stones to do this. It should. I have a son, daughters and granddaughters, and unlike some cultures in the world, value them all most highly. Further, this level of caring extends to all children and their parents as if they were my own. Were it my choice, any and all actions to protect them would be executed forthwith.

Unlike some in America, I am not among those who would have America lose at any cost. I know there are evil people and evil nations in the world, and would be willing to help them end their accumulation of negative karma in any way I could and at my earliest convenience. Being a superpower, tolerating that level of threat is unthinkable and opinions of others do not enter into an equation risking the lives of my citizens and especially my nation's children.

One may feel sorry for a rabid dog, but one doesn't allow it to bite one's family; one exterminates it--without hesitation, quarter, or remorse.

De inimico non loquaris sed cogites. ~ Publilius Syrus, Maxims.
(Don't wish ill for your enemy; plan it.)

FAS Analysis

FAS has gone into a flag formation, just below its fifty-day moving average. The pattern forming is a pennant, which brings up the trading adage of "the flag flies at half-mast." This indicates that upon breakout, the price will rise an amount equal to the rise into the flag. That calculates as (7.80 - 2.32) + 4.90 = 10.38. Breakout would be when price moves above the downtrend line now around the 7.00 level.

Note, too, on the longer-term graph, FAS is also forming a bump-and-run bottom, which would be confirmed once FAS closes above the downtrend line now approaching 7.00 (it's now around 7.80, the highest point of the pennant). The target price calculation would be the lowest point (2.32) to the downtrend line directly above 2.32 (estimated at 12.00) added to breakout point (7.00), or (12.00 - 2.32) + 4.90 = 14.80. One author says the target as the highest point of the entire pattern , which would be 55.50.

Finally, and best of all, the pattern upon breakout above the downtrend line qualifies as a high, tight flag because the price going into the flag has risen over 100% in less than two months. Upon breakout, the high, tight flag rises an average of 68%, meets this target 90% of the time, with breakeven failures approaching 0%. The target here remains 10.38 as calculated in the "flag at half-mast" above, which is only 48%, but an acceptable trade. Should the stop-loss point be 6.27 (Friday's low), the profit:loss ratio is 3.38:0.73 assuming a fill at 7.00. That's a ratio of 4.6:1, well above the 3:1 acceptable minimum.

If this isn't enough the Point & Figure chart target is 17.75 with a breakout above 7.5. Be greedy but use a trailing stop. With ETFs, especially leveraged ETFs (and FAS is a 3X), not using a trailing stop is hazardous to your wealth.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Trade Switch

The $NYHL indicator gave a switch from short to long last weekend. The model sold QID and purchased QLD, using Monday's opening prices.


The earnings from July 2006 to March 2009 indicates an overall profit of 349% or an annual return of 131% per year. Compare this to a period when most were down approximately 50%, requiring a 100% recovery to make breakeven.

As can be seen the false signal in January was expensive. I am thinking about how to improve the model, but most precautions delay the purchase to assure the signal doesn't reverse. At the moment, I'll take solace the model outperformed 99.9% of "professional experts" and in an adverse year proved enviably profitable.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Mob Rule

With the passing of the House Bill taxing AIG and other bonuses at 90%, have we returned to a McCarthyism mindset? One senator even received national television coverage for encouraging AIG bonus recipients to perform seppuku, the Japanese ritual of suicide. In more than one jurisdiction, encouraging suicide is illegal, but apparently not for senators. Disappointingly, but not surprising, CNBC gave play to his statement throughout the day.

A great deal of the congressional noise stems perhaps from their fear that the citizens may discover congressional members received $1.7 billion from the very firms and industry that caused the financial meltdown, not to mention another $3.8 billion that went to lobbyists from these same firms. If not fear, is it because they settled for too little and are now angry at those who receive more?

If anyone is as disgusted as I with these mob leaders who take money then pretend anger against those who paid them, I would suggest voting against incumbents.
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The other side of the AIG bonus scenario is best described by the resignation letter of an AIG-FP bonus recipient. His letter was published in the New York Times. The full text can be read here. In spite of the oft repeated furor, the recipients were not those responsible for the credit default swaps that brought AIG down. Facts are easily ignored by mob leaders seeking to divert attention from themselves, even if those harmed are innocent.

In Britain, the Banque AIG Compliance Officer has asked the Serious Organised Crime Agency (SOCA)to investigate whether the pressure to repay bonuses amounts to extortion. http://www.cnbc.com/id/29890568

Monday, March 23, 2009

What If...?

What if the Persians had won at Salamis? What if Christ had not been crucified? What if the Chinese had harnessed steam power before the West? What if Hitler had won in Russia? Sprechen Sie Deutsch?

This last counterfactual speculation is not difficult to imagine. In October 1941, Stalin wanted to leave Moscow for his dacha in Kuntsevo. His chief of security, Beria, talked him out of it, saying the dacha was rigged with explosives should it have to be destroyed. Had the usually iron-willed Stalin gone anyway and Beria's worst fears realized, the death of Stalin would probably have enabled the Germans to win Russia. The weak-willed Politburo may well have made a compromise with Hitler as had Russia during World War I, trading European areas of the Soviet Union for continued existence east of the Urals. Hitler told Goebbels in August 1941 such an "Asiatic Russia" was acceptable and would be of little interest.

Hitler would have gone on to enslave 150 million Russians, eliminate 11 million European Jews, and finally achieve the conquest of Great Britain. Had he still declared war on the United States, we may have used atomic bombs on German cities after we had demolished Japan. Or maybe not. A more detailed article is here.

These speculations on history point out how fragile various outcomes are, how easily things can end adversely. The book contains many of these, and the War Historian website has more.

Actually, Germany winning in Russia might have been closer than we think. Operation Barbarossa was delayed 6 weeks because of an insurrection in Yugoslavia, instigated by British Intelligence. The Russian invasion finally started on June 22, and reached its high water-mark in the Moscow suburbs when "General Winter," as the Russians call it, with help from General Zhukov, halted the Germans.

Enjoy! These are academic exercises of the past, and of little import. But, what if the Obama moves to salvage the economy do not work as hoped? What if the world falls into another depression? Not as much fun, but of greater import, I think.

Or we are being forced into nation building when we acknowledge that we're not very good at it. We shall become so, or we may cease as superpower, following the Spanish and British eras into history. The next voices from the moon shall speak what language? Zai jian.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

American Imams

Imams have the power to condemn anyone by merely stating or implying they should be harmed. Someone takes care of it for rewards in heaven; no contact with the imam is needed.

The bonus recipients of AIG have received such condemnation from three American government officials by those officials subpoenaing the list with the intent of either releasing it or intimidating by threat of release. Regardless of whether one agrees with AIG paying bonuses or not, the action of these three government officials to subject those people and their families to potential harm I find totally reprehensible and beyond contempt.

Were I one of those subjected to such official treatment, I would request political asylum elsewhere, move my family there forthwith, and not endanger my wife and children longer than necessary by stopping by IRS before leaving. These three officials should definitely not be returned to any office after such heinous action. That is a minimum just reward for anyone endangering citizens, especially children, for political ambition.

Ironically, those vilified AIG employees are responsible for favorably unraveling $1.6-trillion, so the $165-million in bonuses is equivalent to $0.01 per $100. Should their performance diminish 10% after such horrendous treatment, AIG and the government as 80% shareholder will suffer $160-billion or one-thousand times the amount of the contracted bonuses. Not only is the official behavior reprehensible ethically, it's absolutely stupid economically and another reason these officials should no longer be in public service. They seek only to serve themselves at great public expense.
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A viewpoint not heretofire heard, an AIG employee: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29875921

In Britain, the Banque AIG Compliance officer has asked the Serious Organised Crime Agency (SOCA)to investigate whether the pressure to repay bonuses amounts to extortion. http://www.cnbc.com/id/29890568

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

FAS Update

FAS was mentioned as being a breakout in the previous entry on Bump-and-Run Bottoms on March 15th. FAS paused a day to retest the downward trendline, then has proceeded upwards both towards its target and the descending 50-day moving average. The moving average and price appear about to meet at the stated target of 8, a gain of over 40% in four days.

Excuse me while I pat myself on the back. It's yoga. (grin)

Om Brzee Namaha

To understand this mantra as I do, you need to know my source, Bridgett. She is Canadian, a successful businesswoman, driven from a childhood in poverty, brilliant and beautiful. She was a weekend IV nurse at the hospital while also being owner of a coffee shop and an aroma therapist, before dropping the nursing career to pursue business. Her coffee shop roasts its coffee, so the taste is above the others.

She is beautiful inside and out, stemming from her deep spiritual inner nature. As well as working 60-80 hours per week, she is the advanced PR for Swami Paramanand visiting in May. The universe serves her. For example, she needed to replace her source of pastries for the shop, so the couple who had years before supplied her with Hungarian pastries, walks into the shop, having moved back from Charleston, and want to again cater to her shop. Magic!

Bridgett, you are truly a light in the universe. I thank you for being.

The mantra requests plenty for everyone, not just oneself. I like that and she points out that is its strength. After telling me about it, I made sure I could at least spell it, and repeating it several times more to make sure I had it than for effect. Today, my retirement arrears was deposited in my bank account. Wow!

I cannot of course claim any cause and effect, but it sure seems a synchronicity. I’m perfectly happy with that. Thanks, Bridgett.

Did I mention she roasts her coffee?

Om Brzee Namaha.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Summation Index

It would appear the McClellan Summation Index may provide an excellent indicator of the intermediate trend of the market, smoothly turning early in the movement. I'll endeavor to test this since it could perform more efficiently than the $NYHL weekly indicator. Note that it definitely called the turn last Tuesday, early and smoothly. It seems to be more ragged at tops, but then, tops are usually more ragged than bottoms.

The McClellan Summation Index is normally a running summation of the McClellan Oscillator. The McClellan Oscillator subtracts the number of declining issues from the number of advancing issues, divided by the total advancing and declining issues. Rather than working with a fraction, the Oscillator multiples the fraction by 1000 to get a nice round number. The Oscillator then uses a 19-day exponential moving average (EMA) vs. a 39-EMA. When the shorter-term (19-day) EMA crosses the longer-term (39-day) EMA, a change in market direction is indicated. By actually subtracting the 39-day EMA from the 19-day EMA, a graphic is created where the result crosses zero.

The original Summation Index is then a running accumulation or summation of the Oscillator. A smoother version uses a calculation: 1000 + (19-day EMA – 39-day EMA) – [(10 * 19-day EMA) – (20 * 39-day EMA)]. The EMAs are Advances - Declines.
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Each vertical divider in the attached graph is one week.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Isolation

The last couple weeks while waiting for tax refunds and retirement benefits, I’ve been on a pinched budget. The one luxury I’ve allowed myself, not knowing when monies would appear, is going to the coffee shop each morning to post to this blog, and receive/answer email. That time was usually limited by battery life, which has diminished over the years. While in my room I do not have access to the internet.

It has made me aware of isolation, and how it can kill the elderly in a few years. Even having internet access could make a tremendous difference, for me, anyway. There is no doubt many elders who have never used it and would not take to it. Thankfully, I’m not one of them. Once monies arrive, that is the initial item on my to-do list.

When involved in mom-care, I had both access to her retirement-living staff, the hospice staff, and a DSL internet connection. Scaling back to none of these is tough. Before, even on days off, I borrowed John’s internet modem, so felt connected to the world.

Other planned involvements include an exercise program, a stringent one needed to quickly regain physical conditioning. That should improve attitude in the same manner that one cannot feel depressed when walking. It should also improve blood pressure, cholesterol, etc., not to mention make me feel good about myself, both for the physical shape and the successful self-discipline. Since this is an alone activity, it may not readily appear connected to isolation, but it very much effects the feeling.

I’ll also explore various course options to determine if there might be some of interest that will get me out of the house and in contact with others. These could include AB Tech, UNCA, and ad hoc study groups available in the community. I still have a desire to learn mathematics that I thought I would do after retiring. Since I am retiring again, I’ll consider it again. Perhaps I could even mentor an adult course of some type; e.g., investing.

Another list of to-do’s includes some dental work and some eye work. Both have been held in abeyance until the monies and Medicare were available. That time has come, it seems. These will provide a boost in self-esteem, which definitely improves the adverse effect of isolation.

With all these newfound advantages, I might even try internet dating, with great hopes of ending isolation. As you can tell, I am determined not to die of isolation, now or later.
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I’ll also be thinking of what I might do to reduce isolation in other seniors. Perhaps mentoring them in internet contact.

Principles and Values

It suddenly came to my attention that I could not tell you my principles and values, yet it strikes me as vital that I should be able to. I am sure I have them since I've acted against self-interest for others, yet have hurt others and myself when later I discovered some absence.

This became evident when Glen Beck was on TV talking about the topic. He only mentioned he has his, so later I went looking for them on the internet. They seemed a little thin to me, so I’ll not use his. His seemed merely a list of things that make him an egocentric conservative, vitally interested in ratings. I had listened to him for a few weeks when he was on CNN, but ceased and unsubscribed from his newsletter. They asked why I was unsubscribing, but I resisted telling them it was because I not heard anything constructive in the weeks I listened. Although I found his principles and values a bit thin, perhaps he is improving. Good.

One of the first items I think of is religion’s ten commandments, but these seem a bit dated and thin; for example, “Thou shall not kill.” Seems simple and straight forward enough, but there are numerous unstated exceptions from killing enemies in war, criminals for crimes, others in self-defense, and animals for food. Vague. I like the simplicity of statement, but it is too simple as Einstein warned, although in reference to science.

So, all I can say at this point is that I shall be working on this task or project, both for my benefit, as well as for potential use by others who would like a specific, teachable statement of principles and values.

If anyone would, please, do offer suggestions and rationale through comment. Thank you in advance for your response.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Bump-and-Run Bottoms (BARBs)

It would appear the long-absent buyers of the market have been heard from. The last week started as usual, but Tuesday saw a tremendous gain on unusual volume. Floor traders estimated 75% of the short sellers had covered compared to the usual 10-15% at market bottoms. As if to confirm the assessment, the next three days continued the rally on above-average volume.

The pattern potentially forming appears a bump-and-run bottom. The key word is “potentially.” A pattern is not valid until it confirms, and a bottom bump-and-run confirms when price closes above the down trendline drawn across the price peaks. However, one can anticipate that happening and prepare for the event.

One indication the trendline holds validity is that it is virtually synonymous with the 50-day moving average. In the recent past, the price has honored the moving average several times, peaking at it, and then retreating.

At the current rate of ascent, that could happen within the week. Chances are, however, it will pause at least once before that time. During the preceding downward movement price paused at approximately at the halfway point of the total move. This is known as a flag, and it often “flies at half-mast.” This also roughly coincides with a previous low at 741, which was a point of temporary support going down and formed resistance going up. That resistance limited the price ascent to only a day’s pause, attesting to the power of the upward movement.

There exist additional resistance levels at approximately 800, which will also approximate the level of the trendline and 50-day moving average as price ascends toward that level. These provide too many resistance indicators to expect the price to ignore them, but will indicate movement strength once exceeded.

Should the breakout happen, confirming the bump-and-run bottom, the price target will top at 943. This provides a nice profit but one cannot buy the S&P 500. Instead, we can purchase an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that represents the S&P500. One the best bets is RSU, which shows the same developing pattern as the S&P index, and has even better volume increases on the upward price movement. Assuming a breakout level of 18, the price target would be 25, giving a potential profit of almost 40%.

Bump-and-run bottoms have an average target of 38% gain with a 68% chance of reaching that target, yet only a 5% chance of not realizing breakeven. Nice odds.

Another potential trade is the Financial ETF, FAS. FAS is not a bump-and-run, but has a trendline breakout already, with the movement upwards on tremendously increased volume. If an improved outlook in Financials is generating the market movement, it is reasonable that Financials lead the market. It is indeed doing so, and it is already a trade. The price has already moved from 2.32 to 5.15, over 100% in five days.

The target price here is calculated as the distance between the dip price (2.32) and the trendline directly above that price, which I would estimate is above the current price of 5.15. This gives a target around 8, or over 50% profit. It may well run all the way to the 50-day moving average now at 10, providing a 100%. The stop-loss point should be any close under the down trendline.

These are examples of technical analysis, which provides traders a way to make an enviable living. The objective is to find stocks in patterns and positions that provide favorable odds of a favorable outcome, then taking positions in those trades. Traders use quick loss limiting exits should the position go adverse, thus limiting losses. The price targets should be at least 3 times the stop loss point, thus allowing a profit even if the trader is correct only half the time.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

A Different Kind of Friday the 13th

This morning I had a pleasant experience all-the-more so because I was expecting the opposite. I went the local Social Security Administration office to check on my retirement benefits, expecting long delays and polite, disinterested bureaucrats. Instead, I was treated to the most professional and personable interview resulting in benefits starting next month. And I was out in 45 minutes.

Those ladies pose a serious threat to the reputation of bureaucrats.
Thanks, ladies.

Awe and Gratitude

From time to time, I awake without feelings of awe and gratitude, and know I had best get my attitude right before I have a bad day. But some days I awake and don’t even realize I’m not feeling awe and gratitude. On those days, the universe sometimes responds with impish humor and gives me a really extraordinary experience, one so extraordinary I cannot fail to recognize it.

Friday was such a day. Afterwards I walk around with such a smirk-smile on my face, people wonder what I’m getting away with. If they only knew... If they only knew…

Thursday, March 12, 2009

A Personal Pause

I’ve been trying to go though containers from Mom’s at a rate of one per day. Occasionally, like today, I open one still too difficult to get through. These usually contain Mom’s photographs from years ago. Today, I ran into three in a row, and just could not attempt a fourth. I carefully bundled each as it was and left it for another day. What I hope to do is scan each photograph and place it online for all to have, but not yet, obviously.

This, too, might explain the various entries on topics far from personal. It’s all part of the holding things at arms length, which, based on past experience, lasts approximately thirty days. I am about half way to then. We’ll see.

Personal Finance 101

With the country flailing to emerge from subprime status, it’s time to restate real financial fundamentals. This seems too obvious, but I wonder. “Expert” talking heads in the last few days admonished consumers to spend, even though to do so condemns the consumer to bankruptcy should he or she subsequently become unemployed.

This simple system was not taught to me by schools or parents, but learned by trial and error, and too late to have the dramatic results it could have had if it had been applied over a lifetime. Further, this system does not require undue concentration, allowing the person to follow their career of choice rather than pursue an unloved, more rewarding path.

First, save at least ten percent toward retirement. This is over and above accumulating several months’ income equivalent for emergency funds. Also one should not finance items other than things that would otherwise cost the same or more if one used an alternative. An example would be buying a home vs. paying rent.

This accumulates an average of one year’s earnings each decade. This is needed for the second stage financial step.

Second, invest the funds saved. I would recommend the stock market, but do not use experts. They aren’t. They claim no one can do what they do not, which is to remove monies from the market when the market turns down. Instead, construct a system to determine the long-term and even intermediate direction of the market and at least remove funds from the market when that indicator turns adverse.

A simple system would be two moving averages of a market index. One average could be 10 weeks, the other 40 weeks, as an example. When the 10-week average is below the 40-week average, be out of the market. When the 10-week average is higher, be in the market. This would have gone into the market 9-15-2006, and absented the market on 12-21-2007, using the Large Cap Index, the Standard & Poor’s 500.

If the funds are in a self- directed IRA, adverse markets can be profitable by investing in a bear-market Exchange Traded Fund, rather than simply being out of the market. An example is SDS. Bull-market Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) can be used when one’s indicator says to be in the market. An example is SSO. This use of broad-based ETFs simplifies the investment system to need only a few minutes each Sunday night to dramatically outperform the so-called experts. If this perform is placed in a Roth IRA, the eventual withdrawals are tax-free.

These fundamentals should produce at least a comfortable retirement if not a rich one. It is effective enough to use with even a modest income, and does not depend on an “expert.” The well being of a liberal democracy depends on the well being of its citizens; so being financially responsible and self-sufficient helps oneself, one’s family and one’s nation, even when that nation sometimes forgets.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Ad Hoc Ideas for Changing the World

A long time ago, actually several long times ago, I thought that writing daily would be a good idea toward developing writing ability. The invention of the blog has realized this thought where simple self-discipline failed. Here, I get someone to read these occasionally, which appears to be enough. Had I had an English teacher that used this, I would have been a much better writer, and perhaps even choosing a different profession.

Another idea I’ve had and not implemented is what I call a narrative database. Using the old Apple card (I think it was called) concept, where knowledge was divided into what were the equivalent of index cards or screen-fulls, and then linked together in some coherent manner. By restricting a card’s content to one topic, one could accumulate information that could be combined in numerous ways to generate great volume, hopefully of publication quality. The real advantage would be the ability to initiate links that would otherwise be nonexistent.

A simple such system can be implemented on the blog by categorizing the various entries into topic headings. I’m beginning to accumulate enough to do so.

Basically, this blog is a learning experience, as well as a great source of personal enjoyment. I love writing these entries, regardless of whether they turn out to be valuable to anyone. And that’s enough.

Another idea I have not seen is the electronic equivalent of the popular 1960s programmed learning. Books on various topics were written where a chunk of information was presented followed immediately by a multiple-choice question. If the question were correctly answered, the reader was directed to go ahead in the book. If incorrectly answered, the reader was redirected to either an alternate presentation of the same topic, or a regressive lesson should an answer indicate non-mastery of a previous topic.

With multimedia presentation capabilities, it seems this idea could be expanded in effectiveness that would accelerate student progress beyond what is not considered possible. If these were designed for a large audience, the thought and effectiveness testing could be used to further increase effectiveness, even continuing to collect feedback from testing over the internet, thus allowing attention to be directed to areas of greater difficulty or insufficient challenge. In other words, continually improving.

Under such as system, students could progress at their own speed, converting extra time into greater progress, with the system assuring mastery at each level, repeating sections as needed. Further, such courses can be made available for life-long learning on the internet so adults can always be working to improve themselves and their earning capacity.

Interesting potential, I think.

Making GM Worth Nothing

When the Big 3 CEOs flew into Washington the first time to beg bailout monies, it was apparent from the GM CEO, Wagoner, he thought the monies were a gimme and his plan was to suck government money until the economy recovered. Washington sent them home to come up with a plan, which gave GM executives a working weekend before driving back for their gimme.

Flying or not was some kind of PR stunt forced on them by grandstanding congressmen. As a pastime, we had at one time calculated the cost to Chrysler of Lee Iacocca taking a 15-minute dump. It was an amazing $17,000, showing that having a bathroom adjoining Iacocca’s office was indeed an excellent investment of Chrysler funds—much less flying Iacocca anywhere he thought he needed to go. Taking an extra 8 to 12 hours to drive to Washington DC would have been unthinkable.

Another difference between the Chrysler bailout of 1980 and the GM bailout of today, is that Iacocca had a plan. The problem at that time was one of cash flow, and Iacocca merely wanted loan guarantees, not real money. Further, the book value of Chrysler was over three times the loan guarantees, meaning the government could hardly lose should the loans not be repaid.

As well as not having a plan, GM has a previous-quarter book value of negative $98 per share outstanding. Multiplied by the shares outstanding, shows it would take $61-billion investment to make GM worth nothing. From what I hear GM’s position hasn’t improved over the last quarter.

GM has a further problem, I think. After owning several GM products, none of which got over 100K miles, GM plans for me buying future products had best include reincarnation.

Perhaps with these impediments, GM’s only viable plan is to take government money and wait until the economy recovers.
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While writing this, I heard the news of Ford and the UAW renegotiating their contract, including UAW concessions to take Ford stock in lieu of some retirement benefits. I applaud UAW aligning fortunes with that of their company. It provides at least the potential for Ford to provide goods and services in the best interest of its customers, stockholders, and employees. If management also makes this concession, a step forward is realized.

I’ve admired Ford their stance of refusing government bailout funds, and their financial foresight in being positioned to do so. Should one wish to purchase stock in a company likely to survive this downturn, and then thrive in the subsequent recovery, Ford would be preferred over the other two remnants of the Big Three.
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GM has updated their stats for the latest quarter. Book value is now negative $141.12 per share, times 610.5-million shares outstanding, equals $86.154 billion to make GM worth nothing. That's going down faster than the bailout monies coming in.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Miscellaneous Munchings and Musings

Early to bed means one ends up at strange hours with misty missions one cannot really grasp. A strange dream awoke me at 11:59 p.m., and I do not really remember the dream, so cannot determine its meaning; only remember I thought it significant at the time. Now (3:30 a.m.), I am up with neck pain and waiting for the ibuprofen to kick in. Of course, I smile when I remember I have no need to go to work tomorrow, so no problem. That’s a nice no problem.

Yesterday evening, I went to bed early because I was having difficulty getting into some books I had cherished after getting them from the library. The major one was In a Different Voice, by Carol Gilligan, but also her The Birth of Pleasure. I’ve stacked all these for return in the morning. Not like me, but perhaps for reason.

I’ve picked up long owned The Cloud of Unknowing. This book, written in the last quarter of the 14th century, by an anonymous English priest, is a mystical classic. In its day, it would have invoked
the Church’s wrath since it was written in English. The unwritten rule seems that mystic works written in Latin and went untranslated, were cause for sainthood, but those either written in or translate to a native language could be cause for excommunication and, in one case, burning. Meister Eckhart seems an exception since his works were condemned without he being so personally.

Many of these “untranslated” medieval mystics are now Doctors of the Church. Of course, today, they are translated, and readily available to anyone, as well as classics from the East. Two major happenings of the twentieth century now make much available that previously have never been so. First, the 1959 invasion of Tibet by Communist China launched a million Tibetan monks into the world. This foretold in the 13th century by the Buddhist leader in Tibet. The second happening was Vatican II, the council that switched Mass from Latin into native language, and released any number of closely held spiritual classics into the world. The last two popes have attempted to close the many doors opened by Vatican II, but with limited success.

With the availability of such diverse spiritual texts and post-modern discerning of alternate cultures being equally valid, many of the sacred beliefs are seen as merely cultural bias and even archaically unethical. If they weren’t exempt because of their religious status, actions from some of their religious tenants would be illegal. Further, many see religions at best as ineffectual in meeting needs and even answering questions of ultimate concern—the true mission of faith. In short, religions fail to provide convincing life-mission guidance and methods of personal transformation, and do not recognize, much less understand their failure. Instead they attempt to substitute fraternity and entertainment value. Their membership declines and many members simply no longer attend nor contribute financially.

Bubble Bursting

Forever in history, things get carried too far. We’ve seen it a couple times in the last ten years, first with the “dot-com” or “tech” bubble of the 1990s, and now the mortgage/mortgage-backed securities bubble resulting in the current recession. The current one hasn’t yet received an all-inclusive name. It will.

The Dutch had their tulip bubble where the price of a special tulip caused some to literally mortgage their house to purchase that tulip. The British had the South-Seas bubble where investment in anything relating to the exploration of the South Seas would be over-subscribed. It happened in the US in 1929 ending in the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Actually, it happens more often than one supposes. In the late 1970s-early 1980s, farmers greatly expanded production because of anticipated exports, borrowing much too much to accomplish that. When the anticipated markets failed to materialize, many farmers lost the farms that had been in their family for generations.

It also happened to the banks when they were falling all over themselves to loan money to Latin American countries, until in 1981 it became apparent that those countries weren’t repaying the loans except in cases where they were arranging an even larger loan. Most people never heard of that bubble and the banks silently worked it off their balance sheets from 1981 through 1989. Today’s FASB 157, the “Mark to Market” rule prevents banks from doing that, in part contributing to today’s banking meltdown.

We personally felt a bubble with oil going to $147 per barrel, driving gasoline to over $4 per gallon. That in part fueled commodities spirally upward to levels heretofore unseen. Then both bubbles burst for reasons as varied as those explaining the price appreciation. In a matter of months, prices were a mere fraction of their former peak.

The point is: Bubbles burst! Further: Bubbles always burst! When one hears the supposed wisdom, “It’s different this time,” it’s near the time that bubble will burst. The more supposedly the expert one hears speaking such stupidity, the more certain the outcome.

By keeping this in mind, one not only can make a living, one can become rich. It is not necessary to invest against the rising tide, but simply await the breaking of the bubble. In terms of the market, it only takes the most elementary of techniques to determine timing.

Let us take the pricing of oil as an example. It was indeed dramatic. I’ll use the graph of $WTIC, the representation of continuous contracts to track prices over a few years. The technique I shall use is the trendline. The pattern shown is the bump-and-run reversal.

First, trendlines: A trendline is simply a straight line drawn across price extremes. When a price is rising, the trendline is drawn across the dips in downward movement, and then extend it into the future. If one were invested in that stock, one would sell it when the price dips below the trendline. Were the price declining, the trendline would be drawn across the price peaks, and a buy signal would be indicated when the price broke above the trendline.

Second, the bump-and-run reversal pattern: A bump-and-run is created when the price bumps along the trendline, then moves well away from the ascending trendline. The reversal comes when the price returns and crosses the trendline. Once the trendline is broken, chances are the excursion away from the trendline before it is broken will be mirrored to the opposite side after it is broken.

In the case of oil, the bump-and-run occurred in two different time frames. The weekly chart showed it happening in a longer term, and the daily chart showed it was accelerating in the short term. Sounds like a double bubble, true bubble gum—and it was.

During the first week of July 2008, the daily trendline was broken and the target price was approximately 110, the trendline of the weekly graph. If that were broken, the next target area would near 70, one-half of the peak-price of $147. Finally, the longer-term graph shows a trendline at 70, which if broken would result in a target below 40. All were met.

To actually profit, one could use a new PowerShares ETN (Exchange Traded Note), DTO, representing the cost of crude. Previous ETFs were oil and gas companies, not crude oil itself. The initial position in DTO would have been at $29, and finally peaked over $250, in February 2009. Even had one exited the investment during the dip near year-end, one would have exited at over $100, or more than 300% in six months. Nice money, these bubbles.

To repeat the main point of this post: The world and markets are continually blowing bubbles. Bubbles burst. Bubbles always burst. If one refuses to get caught up in the mob psychology of the bubble, one can make astounding returns when bubbles burst.

PS: Bubbles form and burst at market bottoms, too. The Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottom has an average rise of 38%, a break even failure rate of 2%, and 68% rise to the highest point in the formation (meet target). Not bad.

Monday, March 9, 2009

Is Elliott Waving?

Decades before fractals became fractals, or at least were recognized and named fractals, Ralph Elliott discovered and published The Wave Principle. Elliott spent his career as an accountant in Latin America, filling various positions, private and public, finally returning to the United States when debilitated by an intestinal tropical parasite. Initially, the Elliott wave, as it became known, was applied to the stock market, but later to any number of natural phenomena.

Elliott extracted from the seemingly random market excursions repeating patterns that had five waves upward, followed by three waves down. That pattern is both a part of larger patterns and contains smaller, similar patterns. As can be seen from the adjacent diagram, the five waves upward are actually three waves upward with two “corrective” waves downward. It is not unlike the adage of two steps forward, one step back, except here it is three steps upward with two steps back. The three waves down similarly contain two waves downward with a single “corrective” wave upward. Note the “impulse” waves, as Elliott called them, the wave moving in the direction of the major wave (waves 1, 3, and 5, of the larger upward wave, and waves A and C of the downward wave) have five imbedded waves while “corrective” waves (waves 2 and 4 of the upward movement, and wave B of the downward movement) have three waves. This will be important in interpreting.

The real world, of course, is not quite some simple. The adjacent graph of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the 20th century shows the five upward waves, peaking with wave five in the year 2000. The initial wave 1 ended in 1929, wave 2 in 1932, after the market deteriorated 89%. Wave 3 ran from 1932 until 1965, when wave 4 began and moved the market sideways until 1982. This wave 4 was a sideways or “flat” variation of a corrective wave. Wave 5 ran until 2000, ending with the “dot-com” or “tech” bubble bursting.

The ABC corrective pulse began in 2000 and continues through the present. The DJIA shows another Elliott variation, where the B wave peak is higher than the wave 5 peak. The Standard & Poor’s 500 shows a peak equal to the wave 5 peak, but this index was only started in1957, so cannot show the entire 20th century. It would initially indicate another sideways or flat correction like the 1970s, but there is a rule stating that correction types alternate. Since the 1970s were flat, the 2000s cannot be.

Even more indicative is the NASDAQ Composite, which shows the traditional ABC formation. The currently in-progress C wave should carry below the downward excursion of the A wave in 2002-03. The other indexes already have.

A study of the various corrective patterns shows that corrections can never be fives. Only impulse waves can be fives. In other words, an initial five-wave movement against the larger trend is never the end of a correction, only part of it.

That means that this downward movement should end the ABC correction and a new 5-wave upward move should start. Yes!

If the movement off the C point goes up, then forms another leg downward, the entire ABC correction since 2000 is actually an A impulse wave down of an even larger ABC correction. Oops!

Like most things, Elliott better interprets the past than the future, but two alternatives are far better than infinite. The HiLo index from the previous essay, “Being on the Right Side,” will guide you profitably in either case.

The point most applicable perhaps comes from the 1932-37 market. After dropping for almost three years from 1929-32, the market bottomed and began the greatest bull market in history until the 1990s. This 1930s bull was in the midst of the Great Depression, and the market appreciated from a low of 42 to a peak of 187—over 400%—in five waves.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Personal POV

Since I seem determined to come down heavily on a few sacred cows, I should explain where I’m coming from. I am neither liberal nor conservative. I have a deep disgust for politicians, suspecting their performance, intentions, and ethics. They’ve earned it.

In my humble opinion, government should indeed be run for the benefit of the people. Its responsibilities include the education and welfare of its citizens, and my government has performed admirably in its accomplishments and abominably per its potential.

Admirably, liberal democracies have rid themselves of slavery, though it took over 600,000 lives, 2% of this nation’s population at the time. One hundred years later, in aftershock, this nation rid itself of segregation with minimal loss of life, thanks largely to non-violent leadership by ML King. We celebrate him with a national holiday.

Religions in comparison tend to conserve institutions including horrendous ones like slavery, while considering themselves the bastions of morality. Even today they continue gender suppression, although they have embraced other equalities.

Abominably, our democracy has failed to live up to its potential in some rather obvious ways. It has failed to educate its citizens, as indicated by the H1B program, where we have to import foreign workers because we do not have those qualified to perform the same work at the same skill level. States using lottery proceeds have taken up much of the responsibility by paying college expenses for any of its citizens who perform at a prescribed level. I've addressed education in other blog entries, and shall do so again.

Another example is health care. We supposedly have the best health care system in the world, and definitely the most expensive. However, it doesn’t cover at least forty million who cannot afford it. The government has increased this acuity by requiring hospitals to treat those who cannot pay, thus inflicting a silent tax on those who must pay extra to cover that cost.

Examples of politicians’ ethical lapses include the “shrieker of the house.” In her first 100 hours, the Congress passed an increase in minimum wage, except for Guam. Guam has a tuna processing plant, its largest minimum wage employer. Star-Kist’s headquarters is in guess-who’s political district. Nice lady.

Of course, observing Congressional approval ratings were 1/2 George W. Bush's at his worst, I would venture to say I'm not alone. Obviously, the most prevalent crime in America is Contempt of Congress!

Friday, March 6, 2009

Educational Frost

Perhaps the best investment the government ever made was the World War II GI Bill. It wasn’t intended that way, but 15-million returning GIs, plus probably an equal number of laid-off defense workers looking for jobs at the same time would not prove politically pleasant. The obvious solution was reward the GIs.

The WWII GI Bill differed from subsequent GI Bills because it paid the cost of school, plus books, etc., plus living expenses. In other words, one could go to Harvard on the GI Bill. Later GI Bills paid a flat rate increased only by how many tax dependents one had. These bills worked well for GIs attending community colleges at night, while having a fulltime day job. They worked less well for regular college, and not at all for Ivy League costs.

Attention came to the WWII GI Bill when news reported someone calculating its cost vs. the increased revenues enjoyed by the government, especially when those increases were projected until the anticipated retirement dates of those veterans. Perhaps the press popularity sprang from the government doing something right for once, even if it was inadvertent. It spurred an interest in financing more students, thus increasing anticipated future revenues.

Unfortunately, that would have cost the government money, so they substituted student loans instead. Nice. Students could get their education, repay the loans, plus pay the increase in revenues. All the government needed to do was guarantee private lenders the return of their investment.

A number of students soon discovered that some degrees did not pay a good return on their investment of borrowed funds, so they sought shelter from bankruptcy. The government retaliated by placing student loans on par with owing money to the IRS and judgments for wrongful death. They were no longer absolved in bankruptcy.

So, a student who, for example, attends a one-year culinary school for $40,000, but cannot find a job paying her more than $7 per hour on graduation, gets hounded day and night by creditors.

Basically, the members of society least able to make informed decisions are at the mercy of the most sophisticated, unprincipled marketing, enforced by government sanction. Seems the government has kicked over the seed corn and gone directly to cannibalizing the children—ah, for their benefit, of course.

Financing the Future

These are written as unneeded suggestions to our government to finance the future it envisions for its citizens. As the current presidential chief of staff has stated, “No crisis should go unexploited.” This one seems an extraordinary opportunity.

First energy: Currently energy generation prices at 9 to 11 cents per kilowatt-hour, where alternative, green energy comes in at 15 cents per kilowatt-hour. To level the playing field for green energy, one can pay for alternative energy by capitalizing alternative generation without subsequently charging recipients the extra 50%. The tax credits for solar and wind does just that, but this costs the government revenue.

The other manner is to create a carbon tax that raises the conventional generation expense to 15 cents per kilowatt-hour, thereby destroying the advantage currently held by conventional generation. This generates over $600 billion, which coincidentally equates to the estimated cost of universal health care. The basic problem is the label: “carbon tax.“

If instead “carbon tax” can be labeled cap-and-trade, one can generate the needed revenue without the onerous label. However, it must not be run as true cap-and-trade, since that becomes an capital outflow as detrimental than the funds sent abroad to import oil. An example of true cap-and-trade is provided by German coal-fired energy generation. There, the carbon credits for coal-fired power generation are purchased from China whose carbon credits are generated by hydroelectric construction the Chinese government was already constructing. This lowers the cost to the Chinese government at the expense of the German power consumer. The German consumer pays 150% of the true cost of generation with the extra funds not capitalizing any alternate generation he will benefit from.

If cap-and-trade revenues go to our government vs. being disbursed abroad, “we” have a continuous funding source useable for other objectives. Carbon credits can actually be printed more easily than money. Funding for alternative energy would be offset by increased power to support new electric vehicles, thus carbon credit revenues should increase. The government has created a new “sin tax” by whatever name that will continue indefinitely, and converts to consuming national commodities (coal) while decreasing imported commodities (oil).

A portion must be used to double the alternative energy generation every few years. At the current level, alternative sources generate 1%, thus moving to 2% by 2012 should not deplete the incoming revenues since 50% of power generation is coal fired. The carbon tax also includes natural gas increasing the revenue-generating percentage, and the 20% nuclear power generation could be labeled a toxin, enabling a toxin tax in lieu of a carbon tax.

Second, personal finance: Because of market decline, most 401Ks and IRAs have decreased to approximately 50% of their October 2007 levels. Because of the stimulus plan will not stimulate the economy in the short term, the chance of the market going down further seems likely, and can be talked down if policies don’t induce that effect.

Once the despair peaks, government can “rescue” both 401k and IRA retirements by valuing them at the October 2007 levels, promising a 3% return on investment, and requiring a universal 5% of earnings investment each year from employee-employer contribution. Taking over the trillions in retirement funds instantly benefits government, plus government immediately realizes a 10% increase in tax revenues (5% from employees, 5% from employers, 10% from self-employed), with the 3% return on investment offset by a 4-4.5% inflation rate. The CPI is already constructed to disguise the true inflation rate to less than real inflation of goods and services—so to limit social security and federal retirement increases. It works here, too. The 5% from employee and employer are actually less than the typical 6% 401K contribution with 6% matching by the employer. The government more than makes up the difference because it no longer defers taxes on funds the government doesn’t receive.

Initial valuation of investments at the October 2007 levels is not a problem since social security is a legal Ponzi structure, paying future benefits with future inflows, the initial valuations are merely a book entry. The funds taken in provide trillions immediately and obligations are to be paid from future revenues. By removing these funds from the market, depressed market values into the future substantiate the taking action.

Summary: These two changes provide tremendous advantage to government revenues, funding new opportunities to service and protect the populous. They deserve it, right?
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The above was written tongue in cheek (I hope). Its purpose was to alert against exactly the happenings described. There are active interests who would nationalize retirement accounts, adding monies for those who cannot. The description of the German coal-fired cap-and-trade is true, leading to not to replacement of the coal-fired plants but export of the capital needed to do so. Insanity and ulterior motive are indeed alive in the world. Our recent example was attempting to convert 30% of our food supply to replace 3% of our fuel.

I am encouraged by the administration starting now to work on how to implement universal healthcare. We pay 2.5 times as much for healthcare as other industrial countries, yet receive less results. Critics wishing to resolve the economy before attending anything else indeed miss the point that healthcare and especially the 48 million without it poses a major economic problem.

Hopefully an overall energy plan will also be considered and implemented. Energy also poses a major economic problem and our past performance has lacked sanity. After the 1974 oil embargo, some countries have implemented tremendous plans, Brazil is now an energy exporter, France generating near 80% of their power by nuclear, and profiting from recycling nuclear wastes into new fuel, and Denmark with major wind-power generation.

The United States started down an alternative and efficient path, but abandoned it when the crisis and its memory waned. Although the recent stimulus package has some first steps in energy, we still lack an overall plan, yet such a plan could indeed play a major role in an economic recovery. Hopefully, the administration will put something forward—and soon.

T. Boone Pickens proposed a bridge plan, but with no longer- range plan, it becomes a bridge to nowhere economically.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Aches, Pains, and No Plans

John and I finally finished moving the stuff out of Mom’s apartment, late Tuesday afternoon. The apartment storage and a storage unit remain full. John will be getting that stuff as he can, and I’ll help as needed. Initially, we need a few days to recoup energy and sanity. Even our thought processes are less than rational, much less efficient.

Today is the first day I’ll be uninvolved, although I still need to empty one carload and still have stuff out on the deck, in the cold. That will only require an hour or so, and then I can think about what to do. At this point, that prospect seems blank, indicating the exhaustion. Best thing to do is not push it and by all means, don’t take it personally*. I may go by the grocery to pick up some vegetables for the crock-pot, get some coffee and people watching while I’m out, then post this to the blog. I'll keep life simple for a few days. The rest of my life will return.

The other thing to do is walk. It is said one cannot walk and be depressed. It does work, at least for me. I also would like to resume daily exercise to recoup some physical conditioning, which has been lost this last two years, both because of the recovery from surgery and the stress eating of mom-care. Now, I’ll eat more vegan and exercise often—and keep life simple, awaiting the return of the rest of life. It’s obscured here some place, probably in one of the many boxes stacked in my room. This is my best at the moment.**

*Don't Take Anything Personally. Nothing others do is because of you. What others say and do is a projection of their own reality, their own dream. When you are immune to the opinions and actions of others, you won't be the victim of needless suffering. ~ Don Miguel Ruiz

I find Ruiz' excellent advice applies doubly for self-critique, which I am very active at.

**Always Do Your Best. Your best is going to change from moment to moment; it will be different when you are healthy as opposed to sick. Under any circumstance, simply do your best, and you will avoid self-judgment, self-abuse and regret. . ~ Don Miguel Ruiz

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Stargazing

Liz suggested I go stargazing—often. I agree. I’ve long been one, even back in high school when I did my science fair project on observing variable stars (won second place, too). Later, I loved midwatches (12-4 a.m.) on the diesel electric submarine, when we were surfaced and laying to in the Gulf Stream. Even at sea level, stars are bright in the no-light areas of the ocean.

Since moving to the mountains, I've spend days wandering the Blue Ridge Parkway, enjoying the mountains in the day and the heavens at night. It is tremendous for the soul.

Now that mom-care is over, I shall resume the practice. It provides, as Liz points out, a healing influence. With spring rapidly approaching, lying out all night becomes an attractive thought. Watching stars rise and set hours on end provides some kind of devout contemplation that sets aside and renders harmless all cares of the mortal world. It is stardust observing stardust.

Thanks, Liz.

Last Booking

The book mentioned in the previous post has been inscribed and placed in the Smith Phayer Hospice House. The inscription reads:

“I was honored to be the primary hospice nurse for Dr. Doris Cox. An avid reader, always with 2 or 3 books going, Dr. Cox was the first female Ph.D. in library science here in the United States. She is entirely responsible for getting me “back to the library” after a long respite! I first borrowed this book from her, because she was enjoying it so much. Later, Dr. Cox wanted me to have it. This book belongs here at Smith Phayer Hospice House—donated in her honor and memory: A very dear friend, a wonderful role model, and a fellow reader.” ~ Barbara Tousey, RN, CHPN