EMP~ishly Unthinkable Thoughts

Two nations involved in developing nuclear capabilities, now turn to thoughts of orbital capabilities, making one wonder why. The answer isn’t pretty.

Simple, really. With orbital capability, everywhere on earth is within range, no longer just their next-door neighbor or those within ICBM range. Further, they need not target a city such as New York, Washington, San Francisco, or Los Angeles, but with a single, nominal detonation can disable the entire country. The secret is electromagnetic pulse, or EMP.

North Korea recently tested two nuclear devices, both of which could at best be described as fizzles. A nuclear fizzle is a bomb that doesn’t achieve full capability, but partially explodes. They are now preparing a missile to place a “communications satellite” in orbit.

Iran may not have the same fizzle problem since the head of the Pakistani atomic bomb project gave the plans for building it to Iran. He has recently been released from house arrest for his unauthorized sharing. Now, the first intelligence assessment after Bush was no longer in office is that Iran now has sufficient weapons grade material to construct a bomb. The previous assessment was they wouldn’t have sufficient material for years indicating perhaps that intelligence conclusions were based more on internal politics rather than enemy assessment. Scary.

Iran, too, has expressed interest in developing a space program, rather than just missile testing as before.

An Iranian political-military journal, in an article entitled “Electronics To Determine Fate Of Future Wars,” suggests that the key to defeating the United States is EMP attack: “Advanced information technology equipment exists which has a very high degree of efficiency in warfare. Among these we can refer to communication and information gathering satellites, pilotless planes, and the digital system.... Once you confuse the enemy communication network you can also disrupt the work of the enemy command and decision-making center. Even worse, today when you disable a country’s military high command through disruption of communications you will, in effect, disrupt all the affairs of that country.... If the world’s industrial countries fail to devise effective ways to defend themselves against dangerous electronic assaults, then they will disintegrate within a few years.... American soldiers would not be able to find food to eat nor would they be able to fire a single shot.” (Tehran, Nashriyeh-e Siasi Nezami, December 1998 -January 1999)

North Korean academic writings subscribe to the view voiced in Chinese, Russian, and Iranian writings that computers and advanced communications have inaugurated an “information age” during which the greatest strength, and greatest vulnerability, of societies will be their electronic infrastructures. According to North Korean press, Chairman Kim Chong-il is himself supposedly an avid proponent of this view. (M. A. Kim Sang-hak, “development of Information Industry and Construction of Powerful Socialist State,” Pyongyang Kyongje Yongu, 20 May 2002)

The above is from 2005 Senate subcommittee testimony. But, can a small yield weapon of a magnitude similar to the bombs used on Japan be a sufficiently effective EMP generator. Ironically atomic bombs are much more efficient than hydrogen weapons, so a 10-kiloton plutonium bomb generates 40% of the EMP of a 1-megaton fusion weapon. A 10-kiloton weapon is approximately one-half the yield of the “Fat Man” plutonium weapon used on Nagasaki in August 1945. A 10-kiloton weapon can also be constructed to maximumize the EMP, thus increasing effectiveness above the 40% level.

The effect of such a weapon would be widespread destruction of electronic devices such as digital TVs, computers, cell phones and their networks, electronic ignitions and car computers. Your bank or credit union will not only not know your balance, but won’t know you, until they have replaced their computer and recovered from their backup tapes that were hopefully stored in an EMP-shielded environment. The power and communications grids will go down and will not come back up until a majority of the components are replaced. Many of the transformers of the power grid may require up to two years to manufacture before they are available for replacement.

The new “smart” grid will be even more vulnerable. To bring it down may only require a thousand dollars of equipment operated by an enemy or just unfriendly hacker. That’s progress.

Notice how many in the media say nothing of this threat when discussing the pending North Korea missile test. Instead, we hear about "hitting Alaska." Perhaps it stems from the rumor that media majors are not allowed sufficient education in any other area to qualify them for a minor. It shows often, true or not!

As for my government, this topic seems to have gotten no higher than some subcommittee hearings, and there seems no action to even stock the transformers requiring years to replace. They are as good at circuses as any Roman emperor, but I have no faith they can deliver the bread, judging from their Katrina response.

Personally, one cannot take significant measures to offset one's risk against this. I live in a sufficiently remote community to expect being near the last of the two-year wait for power, and have doubts that, having lost so much infrastructure, replacement transformers can be manufactured in two years. I cannot store enough canned goods to last two years, or defend them if I could. All I can do is assure my Kevorkian kit is updated, and have enough canned goods to be pleasantly surprised should I be wrong about my government. I would like to last at least enough to learn the response perpetrated upon the villain nation.

The logical government action seems: Back channel the two nations embarking on their course, that they had best cease and desist from these actions and make us believe they in fact had. If not, they should not only expect a response to an attack that would convert their countries into glass-paved, self-lighting parking lots, but just as certain expect a preemptive strike sufficient to prevent an attack. Such a strike will not only destroy their means to mount an EMP attack--it will include the economic means of their country to finance further efforts.

Unfortunately, I doubt my government has the stones to do this. It should. I have a son, daughters and granddaughters, and unlike some cultures in the world, value them all most highly. Further, this level of caring extends to all children and their parents as if they were my own. Were it my choice, any and all actions to protect them would be executed forthwith.

Unlike some in America, I am not among those who would have America lose at any cost. I know there are evil people and evil nations in the world, and would be willing to help them end their accumulation of negative karma in any way I could and at my earliest convenience. Being a superpower, tolerating that level of threat is unthinkable and opinions of others do not enter into an equation risking the lives of my citizens and especially my nation's children.

One may feel sorry for a rabid dog, but one doesn't allow it to bite one's family; one exterminates it--without hesitation, quarter, or remorse.

De inimico non loquaris sed cogites. ~ Publilius Syrus, Maxims.
(Don't wish ill for your enemy; plan it.)