Solar: APWR

APWR enjoys an earnings growth of 197% and is over 400%% off its bottom. It experienced a pennant, which was also a high, tight flag, and is now retesting that level. The retest reached a level of 12.20, while the high point of the pennant was 11.80, but close enough. Volume has been fading on the retest, verifying this is indeed but a retest with a lack of sellers. The uptrend line reaches the 12.20 level today, another verification of this is the short-term bottom.

A high, tight flag gives a target of (11.80-3.00)+7.79 = 16.59. Point & Figure charting indicates a 26.75 target, supporting at least the high, tight flag target. The high, tight flag is the most reliable pattern, with a breakeven failure rate approaching 0% and a target success rate of 90%. Such retests, as currently experienced, happen 54% of the time, and give a welcome second entry chance.

This retracement on a 15-minute graph, shows a tight downtrend following mostly within channel drawn from a linear regression. It has only two errant data excursions outside the channels. The breakout, on volume, occurred during the early afternoon, Tuesday, June 9. After the initial burst, price faltered for the balance of the day.

A 60-minute graph of the retest breakout provides insight into the breakout. The pause coincides with a trendline drawn from the high through the high errant data point, and price hovers at trendline. Note, too, on this graph, the retest price at the bottom honored both the downtrend channel lines and the longer-term uptrend channel. This indicates a rather well-behaved stock, which is nice to trade. Also note, the breakout of the retest channels was on higher volume, with the subsequent pause at lower volume, indicating an authentic breakout.

Another 60-minute graph shows retracement of the retest down trend, giving another indication of a well behaved issue. It popped to the 50% retracement of the retest downtrend, then paused between the 50% and 38.2% levels. A retest is possible of the bottom upchannel line, now at 12.60 and rising toward 13.00 at end-of-day Wednesday. More probable, the price will break out of the downtrend line containing yesterday's breakout, a definite buy signal, especially if occurs with expected dramatically higher volume.

The rising channel linear regression line (black) is currently at 14.75 and will exceed 15.00 on Wednesday. That would be a logical minimum target of this breakout, but the price will probably run to upper channel line, coincidentally at 17.00, just above the high, tight flag's target. There is no rule that a high, tight flag's target cannot be exceeded.