Wednesday, June 17, 2009

FAZ Day

This combines the daily, hourly and 3-minute graphs on the same screen. The daily (upper left) shows FAZ breaking upwards from a Bollinger squeeze. Although it doesn't show clearly on this graph, volume was up considerably over its average.

The hourly, or 60-minute graph shows it moved upwards, out of the channel of the first two days. The upward channel will be redrawn to contain today's action. Often, early channels need such adjustment because they were drawn with so few data points. The redrawn channel having a higher slope reflects the strength of this movement.

Finally, the 3-minute graph shows the day's action well-defined by simple trendlines, allowing one to easily daytrade FAZ, should that be one's inclination. It also allows one to gain entry at a lower turning point, allowing increased profit while limiting risk.

Overall, FAZ was up 6.53% for the day. Tomorrow looks like it will continue. Note, too, the upper Bollinger band and its centering moving average contain FAZ's excursions very nicely. It provides an excellent indication of position, along with the 3-minute graph, showing where one should enter FAZ, then set a nearby stop-loss point to hold loss from an unexpected adverse movement to a mere nibble, while maximizing upward potential.

Using this technique today, one could have entered at 5.00 around 14:30, set a stop loss at 4.95, with an expected target of 5.30, so the reward:risk ratio would have been (5.30-5.00):(5.00-4.95) or 6:1, well above a minimally acceptable 3:1. End of day would have one up 0.25 per share, already five times one's risk upon entry. Tomorrow, the stop loss could be raised to match the Bollinger centering moving average which closed at 5.00.

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