Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Pause Day

As predicted, after yesterday's market drop, today would be a pause day, or a day with little if any movement. It was. Indices were mixed, with Russell 2000 ($RUT.X) down.

Since the Russell 2000 continued down, TZA mirrored and amplified that move, closing slightly up. A rise of over 2% is nice for a pause day. Note, the left-hand daily graph, TZA continues to walk the upper Bollinger band, indicating the trend upward remains in force. The right-hand TZA 60-minute graph has had the latest channels redrawn to include today's movement. Today's drift sideways has left it near the lower channel line, close to an entry point.

ERY, in the left-hand daily graph, also continues to walk the upper Bollinger band, plus paused today on its 50-day moving average. On the right-hand 60-minute graph, the redrawn channel is parallel and overlaps the previous channel. The pause of today and much of yesterday is becoming a Bollinger squeeze. It is also nearing the lower channel line, but the On Balance Volume is not showing any enthusiasm. ERY moves more from the decrease in oil prices rather than the general market indices, so that may pause another day or three before moving.

FAZ in the right-hand daily graph also continues walking the upper Bollinger band, indicating an intact trend upwards. FAZ's 50-day moving average is above, currently t 6.25, and an attractor, if one allows fractal terms. The right-hand 60-minute graph has had the latest channel redrawn to includes today's pause, and shows price challenged the 38% Fibonacci retracement level twice. It held. FAZ has closed directly on the lower channel line, indicating we will know immediately in tomorrow's market whether FAZ will resume upward movement or breakdown. FAZ also has a resistance level at 5.37 which contained the upper movement after testing the 38% level.

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