Thursday, April 9, 2009

FAS Review

To understand this entry, one may wish to review the previous FAS entries (FAS Update) and (FAS Analysis), as well as (Bump-and-Run Bottoms).

Today, FAS closed up 40% on the day. Also:

~ FAS broke out from its flag formation with a breakaway gap (breakaway gaps are very bullish, closing the gap only 2% of the time).

~ FAS broke out on almost twice average daily volume (320M:177M), also very bullish.

~ It did so after retesting its 50-day moving average, which is bullish, too.

~ It came out of a Bollinger squeeze formation, which is, you guessed it, very bullish.

~ The formation it has broken out of is a "high, tight flag," which is very, very very bullish. The high, tight flag formation has an average gain of 69%, hits that target 90% of the time, has a failure rate approaching 0%. It retests its breakout level 54% of the time, but the gap indicates it probably will not. When it does, gain suffers, so the probability of a retest here being minimal is, ah, bullish.

~ On Balance Volume shows accumulation is leading the breakout. That's bullish.

~ Finally, the close was outside the upper Bollinger band, which is a continuation signal, and prices tend to walk the upper (or lower) Bollinger band, once they breakout, all of which is very bullish.

In summary, FAS appears very bullish.

PS: Point & Figure charting gives FAS a target of of 16, but that might make you figure I was pushing the point.
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Should you invest in FAS, please, remember to use a trailing stop. Failure to do so could be hazardous to your wealth.

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