This is the updated return for the system investing alternately in QLD or QID, depending on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) accumulative New 52-week Highs - Lows. It gave a false signal in January, followed by a period of decay, then several switches as it tried to make a bottom. The actual market bottom happened March 9, so one can judge the quality of the switch by comparison. 
Although the system has performed admirably overall, had one invested at the initial January switch, one would be down 13% at this point. That obviously is a situation that could use improvement since the market has moved an enviable percentage since the March 9 bottom.
The NYSE Highs - Lows did reflect a switch on March 23rd, then oscillated several times before running upward for three weeks, and finally gave another bear signal. It's too early to determine if this another false signal or a true switch (true meaning profitable). Keep in mind when looking at the graph, that the line switching shows on March 16, but one doesn't know that until March 23. 
The first thought for improving the system was to check the NASDAQ New 52-week Highs - Lows. It seemed reasonable since QLD and QID are ETFs representing the NASDAQ 100, not stocks on the NYSE. Sure enough, the NASDAQ indicator switched decisively March 23 and remains bullish.------------------------------
This entry is incomplete because the laptop's battery became exhausted. It continues in Learning to Trade 105.
No comments:
Post a Comment