Squirrel World

I put out eats for birds and squirrels, especially in the winter. During the summer, I tend to let it run out for a few days to encourage them to seek food from their natural sources.


Worked pretty well except for one young, female squirrel, whose reaction was to come close to the door, voicing her displeasure that I was remiss in my duties. Much of the time, I could not resist her admonishment. When I did, she waited until I was taking a nap, then came into the room, raiding the food bag directly, leaving a mess on the floor to perhaps have me rethink any future tardiness. I did.

She willingly provides a refresher course whenever needed. I happily report I've become proficient in avoiding further instruction. She seems smug she's shown me my life's purpose and I fulfill it.

Om Brzee Namaha

Om Brzee Namaha is a mantra. A mantra is a sound to induce transformation, and is perhaps the oldest form of prayer of mankind originating in the Vedic tradition of India. Later, it was incorporated in Hindu, Buddhist, and other religions. It is used to divert the mind from its instinctual desires and thoughts toward manifesting divine consciousness.

Om or Aum is both a mantra unto itself and an auspicious beginning, even as legend states the Lord chanted Om as He created the world. The letters Aum are said to represent the three deities, Brahma, Vishnu, Shiva; the three worlds, Bhuh, Bhuvah, Suvah; the three Vedas, Rig, Yajur, Sama; and the three states, waking, dreaming, and deep sleep. It symbolizes everything, the means and goal of life, the world and Truth underlying, the material and the Sacred, the form and formless, and provides profound effect on body and mind. It begins most mantras and Vedic prayers.

Namaha ends many mantras and prayers, saying I bow down to this, I submit and submerge myself, I become one with this, this meaning the substance of the mantra or prayer.

Brzee requests greater substance, wealth, a vanquishing of scarcity consciousness. The concept invoked is that of what the mind conceives and believes, is achieved. The universe reflects the deep mind’s belief, and the mantra beseeches the deep mind to reward, to bestow wealth on others and self.

Brzee Mantra links to a YouTube performance of the mantra repeated 108 times, 108 being all the names for various deities. Many Hindu masters adopt the alias Brzee as part of their message and marketing of their message. It is their manner of saying they can provide this if this is what you seek. They, too, would build toward having 108 names.

In invoking the mantra, let oneself submerge into the spirit of the mantra, this Vedic prayer as old as man or older.

Mom's Service, Saturday, April 18, 2009

The grave to the right is Mom's Mother, Maude Madison Walker, Grandmother. Mom's request was to be laid to rest next to her mother. On the other side of Grandmother is Randall, her oldest son, Mother's older brother.





Leslie made all the arrangements including the service. It was extraordinary. Thanks Les.








Left to Right: Ann, John, Anita, Louisa, Ran, Brenda, Ruth, Leslie. Mary Lois wanted to come but could not because of her health. Not shown is Brenda's friend, Lillian, who took all of these pictures. Thanks Lillian.

FAS Bottom Analysis

This entry illustrates a technique worth, in this case, a potential 300% in less than two weeks. The FAS bottom is a real-life example of John Bollinger's relatively higher bottom. FAS is a Financials 3X Exchange Traded Fund. Although this example uses a traded issue, the technique can be used to determine market index bottoms the day they occur with a significant probability of success.

Mar. 6, 2009: FAS declined for five days, making a new low when it made a hammer. This formation indicates a low, being a Wychoff spring, an American name for a selling climax bounce-back more commonly known as a candlestick hammer. Note the previous day had heavy volume with price significantly down, where this day had less volume, made a lower low, yet closed off that bottom. Note, too, that this tentative bottom, although lower than the previous bottom of 3.92, is relatively higher compared to the lower Bollinger band. That, too, indicates a bottom, and, if so, invokes a rule of thumb that the rebound will carry to the far, upper Bollinger band, currently at 10.83—a potential 400% profit.

Calculating a reward-risk ratio: Reward 10.83-2.64:Risk 2.64-2.32, gives a staggering 8.19:0.32 or 25:1, where one wants a minimum of 3:1. Should one take a position on the open the next trading day, one can use 2.32 as a stop loss point.

Mar. 9, 2009: FAS up slightly but on heavier volume. The heavier volume not resulting in a price decrease also indicates an exhaustion of sellers and buyers coming in. Apparently other traders have seen the potential bottom with tremendous upside potential and are buying.

Had one taken a position on the open, it would have filled at 2.53, providing an improve reward:risk ratio greater than the calculated 25:1. Marvelous. Had one not yet taken a position, one could again taken one at tomorrow's open with a stop loss set at today's low.

Mar. 10, 2009: FAS is up a significant percentage (38%) on again tremendous above-average volume. All doubt that 2.32 was a bottom, yet relatively higher than the previous 3.92 low, is gone. It’s rock-&-roll time! Note, the 20-day moving average centering the Bollinger bands (dotted line) declines toward the lower trendline, and the two should meet tomorrow.

One should move up stop loss to low of the day, 3.09, assuring one should keep some profits if FAS performs adverse to expectations.

Mar. 11, 2009: As expected price paused at the downtrend line, even though volume expanded further. Traders represent the vast majority of volume in this issue, so many expected a possible bonce off the trendline and wanted to capture their profits of the previous day—almost 100% since the 2.32 low to the high of today. For the traders still holding the next day should push through the trendline and move to moving average or even the higher trendline.

A pause day that is nicely higher is nice indeed. Move up stop loss to low of the day, 3.76, virtually assuring a nice profit indeed.

Mar. 12, 2009: Price indeed moves upward on above average but less volume than the previous day. The close averages the difference between the moving average and trendline. The next day’s price action may retest the lower trendline and/or moving average, reach the upper trendline, or both. In other words, expect another possible pause day.

Mar. 13, 2009: Price performed as expected, but volume increased, indicating buyers are positioning for another major move upwards. Note, the next obvious target will be the upper Bollinger band, here shown at 7.23, approximately 40% above the closing price of 5.15.


Mar. 16, 2009: Obviously not today, the price declines on lesser volume, indicating there are not an overwhelming number of sellers. Buyers are watching.


Mar. 17, 2009: Price up 15%, but volume is lower, again, indicating price is near its target of the upper Bollinger band, thus fewer buyers, but today’s action also indicates a minor number of sellers. Note, price did retest the moving average it heeded two days before.

Mar. 18, 2009: Price up 27% achieving the targeted upper Bollinger band, on heavier volume. Tomorrow should expect some profit taking from those who have held this issue from near the 2.32 low to the upper Bollinger anticipation. The 7.80 high is approximately 300% above the 2.32 low.

Bring stop loss up to low of the day, 5.37. Had one wanted, one could have placed a sell order at the target price (7.16), or simply sell at tomorrow's open since one has made target. Tomorrow's open turned out to be 7.75. Nice profit either way, or one could just wait for the stop to take out the position, hoping FAS will walk the upper Bollinger band.

From here one may wish to review FAS Review, the entry of the pattern after price reached the upper Bollinger band. From the various FAS entries, one perceives the tremendous value of Bollinger bands. There are many entries on the web addressing Bollinger bands, but the best method to master them is from the book by the master himself, Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. It is one of the few books I recommend for those wishing to make a lucrative living trading. Bollinger's identification of "relative higher bottoms," as shown here, indicates the tremendous value of this technique. One trade should pay for the modest price of this book.

The Eyes Have It

This may be the last photo of me with glasses. This afternoon, I undergo surgery to correct my vision, and I am of course nervous in spite of overwhelming odds of everything coming out for the best.

My two eyes have become sufficiently different to be frustrating. I compose this with glasses on and one eye shut. My previous reluctance to surgery was the adverse night and low-light vision consequences. Stargazing means that much to me. The newer procedures both minimize this disadvantage, plus correct the very fine anomalies of the eye. 20/15 outcomes are not unknown.

On the other hand, having to maintain two pairs of prescription glasses would cost far more over the years than the surgery. I may still need glasses for reading and computer work, but they should be a lower-power reading glasses available inexpensively.

Wish me luck.
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Saturday, April 25, 2009: Surgery completed and I'm back home. I can see close up magnificently (e.g., I can see fingerprint swirls without glasses), but far vision remains blurry. It is approximately the same level as my vision was before, but in the opposite direction. This, I am assured, is temporary and my vision will shift to improved distance vision and the near vision may decrease to the point I need reading glasses.

I can at least say at this point, both eyes seem equal. They are terribly sensitive to glare, but sight under low-light conditions seems sensitive with only the same focus problems mentioned above.

I do find it amusing that I've been issued a prescription for -1.00 and before the surgery wore +1.00 for general seeing (other than reading). It will improve, say they; it will improve...
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Sunday, April 26, 2009: Vision seems same as yesterday, focusing well on anything within less than an arm's length, but unfocused with glare orbs at distance. A couple of times it bordered on vertigo. I actually am more light sensitive, and turned down the brightness of the TV to much less than it was.

I've thought of making a distance range that would allow me to easily and accurately compare two days, especially to determine if vision is shifting to give better sight at a distance, but have yet to come up with a good idea.

I think things are a bit better today, but I'm not sure if they are or I'm just a little better adjusted. That's why the desire for some kind of objective measure.
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Monday, April 27, 2009: Ordered new -1.00 prescription glasses. They should be available Saturday. Still find it amusing that I have spent a lot of money to convert my +1.00, $15 reading glasses, for -1.00, $47 prescription glasses.
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Tuesday, April 28, 2009: Seems my prime focal point is moving away from me. Things don't start to blur until around three feet where a couple days ago it was inside two feet. Initially I remember moving the laptop 12 inches away to bring the print in focus. Now it is okay at 15 inches, but the brilliance of an all-white background are still a bit much. I prefer the black background of this blog, but even the white letters and lines have a aura around them, like the negative version of a penciled line erased and rewritten.
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Thursday, April 30, 2009: Nothing special yesterday, so didn't post. Today, vision seems the same, plus I seemed to have rubbed the right eye the wrong way so it seems extra sensitive to glare and a bit blurry, but comparing it the left, it is the same--with fog. Suspect no real damage, and using the up-close vision, no damage is apparent.

Wal-Mart Vision Center just called, saying new glasses are in two days early. I Wonderful, since that will allow me to drive down tomorrow without the world being unfocused as it has been all week. Perhaps the universe is indeed looking out for me.

I am beginning to get used to the idea that I may forever need distance glasses but will not need reading glasses. Perhaps, should my eyes regain their strength of youth, I can again read a book-a-day in unending stream. Perhaps a bit of Faustian bargain is going on. Yes!
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Friday, May 1, 2009: Got my one-week checkup and was told I am improving and the symptoms still experienced are all normal. I still suspect I shall not recover to the point I have distance vision without correction. Another person there for his one-week checkup has had good distance vision since his surgery, the same day as mine. Somewhere, someone recorded or didn't read something correctly so I came out different than desired. We'll see.

The Dark Side

He who does battle with monsters needs to watch out lest he in the process becomes a monster himself. And if you stare too long into the abyss, the abyss will stare right back at you. ~ Friedrich Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil

"Safety from external danger is the most powerful director of national conduct. Even the ardent love of liberty will, after a time, give way to its dictates." ~ Alexander Hamilton, Federalist Papers, No. 8.

"The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding." ~ Justice Louis Brandeis, Olmstead v. United States, 1928.

"The Constitution has never greatly bothered any wartime president." ~ Francis Biddle, FDR's Attorney General, 1962

"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for the law; it invites every men to become a law unto himself... To declare that the government may commit crimes in order to secure the conviction of a private criminal--would bring terrible retribution." ~ Justice Louis Brandeis, Olmstead v. United States, 1928.

A lady asked Dr. [Benjamin] Franklin, "Well Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?"
"A republic," replied the Doctor, "if we can keep it."
~ Papers of Dr. James McHenry, describing their exit from the 1787 Federal Convention, Philadelphia.

CounterKnowledge: Autism and MMR Vaccine

“If it’s true for you, it’s true.” ~ Church of Scientology.

Stories abound that seem and are counter to factual knowledge, and even more so on the internet. Some are merely amusing; others fatal. For example, a 1998 article in The Lancet implied the MMR (Measles, Mumps, and Rubella) vaccine might be a cause of autism. The study was retracted in 2004 with disclosure that the dozen children in the study had monetary legal interest in the linkage and the chief investigator was a compensated legal expert for them.

Yet the belief lives on, fueled both on the net and on recent TV appearances such as CNN’s Larry King Live.

CDC states “the vaccine protects against dangerous, even deadly, diseases.” Continued false advocacy then has an intended consequence of exposing one’s children and others to “dangerous, even deadly, diseases.”

Extensive studies since have found zero linkage between MMR and autism, including one Danish study of 500,000 children both receiving and not receiving the MMR vaccine. No study has found any linkage—none!

Note a site illustrating false advocacy is titled “DNA Test Links Autism to MMR,” yet the article itself does not state this. It merely states the DNA was used to identify measles virus in the gut, and the strain found is not yet identified as the same strain used in the MMR vaccine. Soon enough, the article descends into an anecdotal feel-sorry-for-the-child-with-autism, an emotional ploy to obscure lack of cause-and-effect linkage of condition and vaccine. The only linkage apparently is in the doctor’s mind and his letter to the mother. Nice doctor and unethical journalists.

This is but one example of counter knowledge rampant in today’s society. What amazes and horrifies me are the number of people who readily believe it and those, publisher and personality, who perpetrate it for profit. I wonder our species, much less our civilization, has survived.

"One of the greatest challenges facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda..." ~ Michael Crichton
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A recent example of a counterknowledge academic, Jared Diamond, being exposed is described by Rhonda Schearer.

FAS Retracement

FAS dropped today, closing the gap bottom at 7.21, and retests the old flag top at today's close. Whether it holds is yet to be determined. A retreat to the flag top happens in high,tight flags 58% of the time, so that is not yet a concern. The throwback to the flag top usually indicates a lesser response of the overall pattern performance, but not a failure.

Note the 50-day moving average is now at 6.23. FAS could very well retest that, which is coincidentally near the 50% retracement (6.18) of the move upward from 2.32 to 10.05. These simultaneous levels of two indicators may prove a strange attractor that cannot be ignored.

Finally, the first retracement in a new bullish move tends to have a deep retracement, often much deeper than 50%. A 50%-only retracement would be shallower than usual, thus a bullish thing. Also, note the On-balance Volume shows a shallow retreat even though price is down almost 50%, another bullish indicator.

In short, this probably provides a new opportunity for entry, but let the issue prove itself before entering. Require some kind of bottom demonstration before entry, and always use a stop-loss once in.

Sunday Showers

The weather today: Overcast with the light rain scheduled this afternoon already arrived. Seems an appropriate match of mood and mind. I am tired from a drive of 16 hours over the previous two days, with the sadness of mission, interment of my mother. I continue to hold mourning at bay, but sense for not much longer. This intuit stems, I think, from seeing how extraordinary the people I assembled with, and how extraordinary Mom and the people she now rests with.

Mother, Grandmother, Randall. Ordinary people who expended their lives attempting ordinary extraordinary feats, and succeeding. Theirs is a reality version of the hero myth; they momentarily brazen the universe, knowing they will not survive, yet somehow prevailing, doing their best even when their best may not be so very good somedays.

All these thoughts swirl through me, at first in night dreams, now through dreaming insights of the day. These are not whimsical daydreams, but vivid visual snippets just below consciousness, which pop through from time to time as would ship or shoreline from the fog. I suspect these the first symptoms of expected tsunami.

I welcome its overwhelming cleansing, this mourning. I've waited much too long, as if I had a choice. I know the longer the wait, the greater the wave--and this one is big!

The paradox of the experience these last two days, was the joy a refreshing old ties, of seeing and talking to relatives long missed in the imerative of the immediate. It is perhaps another lesson Mom teaches even in her absence: Do not lose the important to the immediate. It seems a lesson we all repeat endlessly, and need yet again. Foolish on our part.

These sadnesses become the showers of our lives, telling us once again, what we will probably soon forget...but maybe, just maybe, not this time. The universe has patience, endlessly repeating these lessons.

These are our Sunday showers.

New Leaf

The time has come (the walrus says...). The extra weight put on in the last few years is coming off! It has gotten to the point of being hazardous to my health, so I shall simply not tolerate it further. That's the easy part, now down to the hard part...

I've acquired a couple of hand weights and an Iron Gym, the chin-up bar that fits in a doorway. Landlady has already expressed concerns that her doorways may not support it. Oh well, if not, ... we'll find out.

I've also ordered 10-Minute Trainer. Obviously I'm serious. Diet-wise, I've cut out red meat (worked last time) and have gotten some Lemonade mix with zero calories instead of the previous 60-calories per serving. I'll eat more fresh salads, which I enjoy.

I am determined to return to an ideal weight which I consider around 187 lbs, my weight coming out of boot camp. I weighted 167-lbs out of high school, then 13-weeks later, 187. I've weighted 203 when doing heavy lifting and walking miles each shift, but no longer plan lifting more than me on the pull-up bar. If the effect of 10-Minute Trainer is as good as advertised, it should come off in perhaps three months, but, even if not that successful, should have me feeling better.

Wish me luck.

Output Cloudy

Observation is that global cloud cover decreases as warming increases. The assumption made by IPCC climate models is that increased CO2 warming causes cloud dissipation, a positive feedback response since less clouds let in more sunlight, further increasing warming. Correlation, however, is not cause and effect. If the dissipation of cloudiness primarily causes warming, a negative feedback response, climate is insensitive to carbon dioxide increase. To make matters even more complex, there might be two directions of causation: temperature causes clouds to change, and clouds cause temperatures to change.

Even IPCC admits cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty in predicting global warming. Seems we might want to resolve this cloudiness before tripping a multi-trillion dollar economy offline curing a problem that may not exist—unless, of course, the solution is the desired end, and the other just the reason that sounds good, not the real one.
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http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/03/set-phasers-on-stun/

Sirius Ruddy

Books VII and VIII of Ptolemy’s Almagest (~150 CE) addresses the positions and motions of the fixed stars, including precession of the equinoxes, a 25,800-year cycle of the earth’s poles movement against the stars.. They also contain a star catalog of 1022 stars, described by their positions in the constellations. The brightest stars were marked of the first magnitude (m = 1), while the faintest were of sixth magnitude (m = 6), the limit of human visual perception (without the aid of a telescope). Each grade of magnitude was considered to be twice the brightness of the following grade (a logarithmic scale).

The brightest star in this catalog is Sirius, the Dog Star. Ptolemy (90-168 CE) assigned his celestial coordinate system, our current equivalent of the Greenwich Meridian, starting at Sirius. In 1718, Edmond Halley (1656-1742 CE) used Ptolemy’s star positions to determine that in 1500 years, Sirius had moved 30 arc minutes, the approximate diameter of the moon, southward. Ptolemy’s star catalog was that good.

The controversy starts because Ptolemy states Sirius is one of six red stars, Betelgeuse, Antares, Aldebaran, Arcturus and Pollux. Aratus, Cicero, Germanicus, and Seneca also commented on Sirius’ redness, with Seneca even describing it as being redder than Mars. Today, five of the six are still red, but Sirius is a blue white star, with a known white-dwarf companion. The white dwarf was a red giant at one time after being the more massive blue-white star of this binary system, but the red giant stage is thought to be 120-million years ago, and progression from red giant to white dwarf thought to take 100,000 years. Thus, the suggestion that Sirius B, the white dwarf, was a red giant two thousand years ago, is considered highly improbable.

Interesting controversy, but I’ve seen only this one explanation of how Ptolemy, a professional astronomer/observer, could be right.

Ocean Cooling?

An analysis of the Atlantic Conveyor, the current that keeps Ireland, Great Britain and other areas of Europe balmy compared to their latitude, showed a 30% weakening over the decade of the 1990s. Data supporting this, however, came from just five research measurements over 40 years, so it could not be determined whether this was a major change of the Atlantic circulation or just natural variability.

To rectify this lack of data, an international network initiated Argo in 1999, to distribute floats globally starting in 2000. These free-drifting floats periodically sink to measure temperature and salinity in the top 2000 meters of oceans, then report findings via satellite upon resurfacing. Because they drift, they also report current velocity. After deploying over 3300 floats, an approximate 750-per-year continuing deployment sustains the network against floats lost or expiring.

Results show cooling of the oceans, contrary to the expectations of global warming. Ocean cooling indicates global warming has not progressed in the last four years, or the missing heat is being transferred elsewhere--elsewhere being either into the ocean depths below 2000m or radiating out to space.

Since 80-90% of global warming should be absorbed in the ocean, and the oceans are cooling, …
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"Cooling of the global ocean since 2003." Craig Loehle, Energy and Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, Jan 2009, pp.101-104(4).

FAS Review

To understand this entry, one may wish to review the previous FAS entries (FAS Update) and (FAS Analysis), as well as (Bump-and-Run Bottoms).

Today, FAS closed up 40% on the day. Also:

~ FAS broke out from its flag formation with a breakaway gap (breakaway gaps are very bullish, closing the gap only 2% of the time).

~ FAS broke out on almost twice average daily volume (320M:177M), also very bullish.

~ It did so after retesting its 50-day moving average, which is bullish, too.

~ It came out of a Bollinger squeeze formation, which is, you guessed it, very bullish.

~ The formation it has broken out of is a "high, tight flag," which is very, very very bullish. The high, tight flag formation has an average gain of 69%, hits that target 90% of the time, has a failure rate approaching 0%. It retests its breakout level 54% of the time, but the gap indicates it probably will not. When it does, gain suffers, so the probability of a retest here being minimal is, ah, bullish.

~ On Balance Volume shows accumulation is leading the breakout. That's bullish.

~ Finally, the close was outside the upper Bollinger band, which is a continuation signal, and prices tend to walk the upper (or lower) Bollinger band, once they breakout, all of which is very bullish.

In summary, FAS appears very bullish.

PS: Point & Figure charting gives FAS a target of of 16, but that might make you figure I was pushing the point.
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Should you invest in FAS, please, remember to use a trailing stop. Failure to do so could be hazardous to your wealth.

Piracy

“It was written in their Koran, that all nations which had not acknowledged the Prophet were sinners, whom it was the right and duty of the faithful to plunder and enslave; and that every Muslim who was slain in this warfare was sure to go to paradise. He said, also, that the man who was the first to board a vessel had one slave over and above his share, and that when they sprang to the deck of an enemy's ship, every sailor held a dagger in each hand and a third in his mouth; which usually struck such terror into the foe that they cried out for quarter at once.” ~ Tripoli's envoy, Ambassador Sidi Haji Abdrahaman, 1786, in London, to US negotiators Thomas Jefferson, Ambassador to France, and John Adams, Ambassador to England.

The United States has a long history with African piracy. Why we tolerate it, today, I haven’t an idea, but a definite opinion. I doubt the Navy or Marines have changed.

After being inaugurated president, Thomas Jefferson sent Naval frigates to the Barbary Coast to deal with the pirates preying on American commerce. In August 1801, USS Enterprise defeated the Tripolitan Corsair Tripoli. Through 1802-03, Jefferson pressed the issue by deploying USS Argus, USS Chesapeake, USS Constellation, USS Constitution, USS Enterprise, USS Intrepid, USS Philadelphia and USS Syren, to the area. In October 1803, USS Philadelphia ran aground on an uncharted reef while pursuing an enemy vessel, was taken intact, and moved to Tripoli harbor. In February 1804, Navy Lt. Stephen Decatur recaptured and set fire to the ship, then captured the city. In April 1805, Marine Lt. Presley O’Bannon turned the war with his capture of Derna. In June 1805, a negotiated treaty ended the First Barbary War.

In 1807, Algiers again began raiding American ships and holding American seamen hostage, but dealing with them was delayed by the 1812 War with Britain. In 1815, the Second Barbary War began. In March of that year, Stephen Decatur, now Commodore, returned with a force of ships, capturing two Algierian ships, and negotiated a treaty with the Dey of Algiers. The treaty specified compensation from the Dey as well as the release of Americans and European hostages. When Decatur moved to Tunis to negotiate a similar treaty and enforce the existing treaty with Tripoli, the Dey repudiated the treaty. In 1816, a combined Anglo-Dutch fleet bombarded Algiers into submission, sending the threat from Barbary pirates into history.

Because of the Barbary pirates, Congress authorized the building of six frigates in 1794, including the USS United States, USS Constellation, and "Old Ironsides," the USS Constitution. From the actions in the First Barbary War, Stephen Decatur became the first American military hero since the Revolutionary War. Presley O’Bannon inspired the line of the Marine Hymn “to the shores of Tripoli,” the adoption of the Mameluke sword worn by Marine officers, and has had three Navy Destroyers named after him. The Marine Corp adopted uniforms with leather high collars for protect against saber slashes, leading to the nickname "Leathernecks." The Tripoli Monument, now at Annapolis, was the first US military monument and honors the heroes of the First Barbary War.

Is it not time for the Third Barbary War? It should be a short one. The Navy and Marine Corp are up to it, protecting the sea lanes is their job. The question remains: Do the politicians have the stones? With everyone in the world, especially the pirates, there is doubt.
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The USS Bainbridge (DDG-96) coming to aid of the Maersk Alabama is named for Commodore William Bainbridge, who commanded USS Phildelphia when she ran aground and was captured by the Algerians in 1803. Bainbridge spent 1803 to 1806 as a hostage of the Barbary pirates. Later, he commanded USS Constitution, Old Ironsides, and during the 1812 War, engaged HMS Java, sinking her. During the engagement, Java shot away the Constitution's helm, so Bainbridge salvaged the Java's helm before Java sank. Today, the helm of Old Ironsides is the one taken from Java.

Uptick Rule

News is the SEC is considering a new uptick rule for short sellers. Many CEOs whine the abandonment of the uptick rule is the reason their stocks were decimated. During the financials meltdown, the SEC outright banned shorting 16 financials entirely, and it made no notable difference. Financials melted anyway, based more on investor perceptions that they were worth not much, if not completely broke, and were obscuring their books for reason.

A new uptick rule gives the SEC something to do that is popular if ineffective. Programming to implement this stuff will be immense, thus it probably won't happen right away, especially considering that "last sale" could be in several different physical markets, from NYSE to Pacific, unless also considering European markets. The NYSE now owns some there. My other concern is what happens on stocks of immense volume; e.g., FAS with 225M shares per day. Processing for this one could be more than a supercomputer with Internet-II lines could handle. That's a lot of problem for not much, as demonstrated in the short ban of financials--they melted in spite of the outright ban of shorts which included dealer shorts.

I remain convinced the problem, if any, is naked shorts, not an absence of uptick. A hedge fund, for example, can buy puts, which forces the options dealer to short to cover his risk, and those shorts are naked. The reg also requires only best effort for borrowing shares, so a lot of dealers don't bother much, knowing the Cox SEC wasn't enforcing anything much less "best effort" mush. When Bear Sterns was still trading in the fifties, traffic in puts specifying sale at 5 had started.

Uptick became passe when the markets went decimal. An uptick when the markets dealt in 1/8th points, meant something; at 1/100th of a point, it means nothing, especially on a stock that is trading, say, 500 times per second. On a lower volume stock, it will be easily manipulated by merely buying 100 shares at a higher price than is specified in whatever form a new uptick rule is drafted, then shorting 10,000 shares after the 100-share order executes.

At most, a new uptick rule will require those who whine about its demise to find something else to whine about when their world doesn't go as planned and they can't find a mirror to tell them who is the ugliest of all. Amazing how high and widespread victimhood purveys, but not surprising. Tis the reason for golden parachutes, nicht wahr?

Private vs. Public Interest

"There should be relentless exposure of and attack upon every evil practice, whether in politics, in business, or in social life. I hail as a benefactor every writer or speaker, every man who, on the platform, or in book, magazine or newspaper, with merciless severity makes such attack, provided always that he in his turn remembers that the attack is of use only if it is absolutely truthful." ~ Theodore Roosevelt.

On February 28, 1906, Doubleday & Co. published The Jungle, by 28-year old Upton Sinclair. The novel became an immediate bestseller and has been in print ever since. Sinclair documented the corrupt practices of the meatpacking industry in Chicago, emphasizing slavish conditions of the workers, but the public reacted adversely to the detailed unsanitary conditions of the meatpacking plants.

Suspicious of Sinclair's socialist leanings and conclusions, President Theodore Roosevelt sent labor commissioner Charles P. Neill and social worker James Bronson Reynolds, men whose honesty and reliability he trusted, to Chicago to make surprise visits to meatpacking facilities. Even though word of intended visits was leaked and the meat packers working three shifts a day for three weeks to clean the factories, conditions of the plants and attitudes of the managers so alarmed Neill and Reynolds, their report inspired President Roosevelt to champion regulation of the meatpacking industry. On June 30, 1906, both the Meat Inspection Act and Pure Food and Drug Act became law.

The Meat Inspection Act required the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to inspect herds before slaughter, each carcass after slaughter, and enforce specified sanitary conditions within the plants. The Pure Food and Drug Act forbade the manufacture, sale, or transportation of adulterated food products and poisonous patent medicines, and led eventually to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

How far deregulation has progressed is detailed in Fast Food Nation: The Dark Side of the All-American Meal (2001), by Eric Schlosser. Schlosser's description of slaughter houses shows the difference between them and Sinclair's meat packers seems that modern slaughterhouses also violate the Clean Air Act. Vapors from their wastewater lagoons cause headaches, respiratory problems, and, at high levels, nerve damage.

Today, we hear of two or three salmonella outbreaks each year, with hundreds or even thousands being sickened. The worse, Peanut Corp of America (PCA) with plants in Georgia and Texas, has now been shutdown, but its products being recalled have reached over 3000, those sicken in the thousands, hospitalized approaching 100, and deaths at nine. Workers at the plant reported the conditions existed for years, in spite of inspections from private inspectors in the pay of the company, and the manager shipped peanut products after becoming aware of salmonella infection. PCA has declared bankruptcy, but I have not heard of the manager who knowingly shipped contaminated product being charged with murder.

In the recent pistachio salmonella outbreak, Kraft detected the presence of salmonella in its own products, and over several months, tracked it back to Setton, their California supplier. Kraft inspectors at Setton determined the cause was indiscriminate intermingling of raw and roast nuts. Roasting kills salmonella, but the raw nuts were recontaminating the roasted nuts. The point here: Kraft found, tracked, analyzed, and reported to the FDA; the FDA did nothing but a press release.

FDA inspects less than 1% of imported materials within its jurisdiction, and so far has not marked materials refused as being refused, meaning these materials can be reshipped with great probability of being passed. USDA restricted meat imports to those countries who have inspection regimes at least as strict as the US, and volunteered to "loan" FDA some inspectors. FDA refused.

In short, the times have become dangerous for the citizen vs. the corporation who would do its best for itself without regard to who it hurts rather than serves. Further, times should become dangerous for those government officials who serve those corporations for political contributions. "There is absolutely nothing to be said for government by a plutocracy, for government by men very powerful in certain lines and gifted with 'the money touch,' but with ideals which in their essence are merely those of so many glorified pawnbrokers." ~ Theodore Roosevelt

"Our aim is not to do away with corporations; on the contrary, these big aggregations are an inevitable development of modern industrialism, and the effort to destroy them would be futile unless accomplished in ways that would work the utmost mischief to the entire body politic. We can do nothing of good in the way of regulating and supervising these corporations until we fix clearly in our minds that we are not attacking the corporations, but endeavoring to do away with any evil in them. We are not hostile to them; we are merely determined that they shall be so handled as to subserve the public good. We draw the line against misconduct, not against wealth." ~ Theodore Roosevelt

"The object of government is the welfare of the people. The material progress and prosperity of a nation are desirable chiefly so far as they lead to the moral and material welfare of all good citizens." ~ Theodore Roosevelt

Light Reading

After a few days of math and physics, of psychosocial, of investment, enough! I need something that just sucks me in and disappears time and self, absorbing me into a different world. In this case, it is Dune House Atreides (1999), by Frank Herbert’s son, Brian, and Kevin Anderson. It says it was written from Frank Herbert’s notes.

In my older years, I now consider Dune (1965) the best science-fiction novel, and Frank Herbert one of the best sci-fi authors. The novel's background thought overwhelms with its suppression of technology to get at the intrigue of potential human development and variation.

My previous favorite was Robert Heinlein’s Starship Trooper (1959), mostly because of its military culture and social constructs. For example, all officers of the Mobile Infantry, Heinlein’s equivalent of Airborne, were drawn strictly from its enlisted corps, thereby assuring meritocracy of its officers. Further, the worldwide society gave franchise only to those who had served society either through military service or through other service requiring risk of life. The idea was not that they voted any better, but they had demonstrated at least an ethnocentric level of responsibility. They had put their society above themselves. The book held women as physiologically and psychologically more capable pilots than men, a concept rare in 1959--or even now.

I note the psychosocial thread running through my choices. It is a fascination that still functions with my latest interests in Lawrence Kohlberg and Carol Gilligan. Apparently it has moved out of sci-fi and into reality. I’ve long been aware that science fiction often rewrites the classics in a modern or future society’s context. For example, Heinlein’s best is normally considered Stranger in a Strange Land (1961), which is a rewrite of the story of Christ, a quite good one I realize in my later years.

Perhaps that is why I always thought Heinlein the best science fiction author, above the seconds, Arthur Clarke and Isaac Asimov. I rated them thus even after much of Heinlein’s future history had been overtaken with real history, but I gave much of that credit to Heinlein being a graduate of the US Naval Academy (Class of ’33, if I remember right). He was discharged from the Navy on disability and wrote his first science fiction story in 1939, “to pay the rent,” as he put it.

Although Heinlein, Asimov, and Clarke were the “Big Three,” I also liked Fred Hoyle, both for championing the steady state universe (he coined “Big Bang” as a derogatory term) and for his science fiction novel, The Black Cloud (1957). A cloud in space turns out to be super-intelligent life and communicates with man. It is as surprised that life can form on planets as man is surprised to learn the cloud is alive. It turns out helical structures can form from inorganic matter, so such life is indeed possible, thus probably exists. Hoyle also first proposed the formation of heavier elements in the cores of stars.

Asimov, of course, wrote extensively about robots, formulating the Three Laws of Robotics, regulating robots in their rise to intelligence. He was also one of, if not the, most prolific writers ever, with over five hundred books published in his career. His short story “Nightfall” (1941) is considered by Science Fiction Writers of America as the best science-fiction story ever written.

Clarke wrote of man’s history and transformation in the series starting with 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) which is rated among the top ten movies ever made, and included HAL, the sentient computer who attempts to take over the mission by eliminating the crew. Clarke is also the “inventor” of orbital satellites, and the geosynchronous orbit of communications satellites is named the “Clarke orbit.”

In reflection, I am amused and amazed how the creations of these authors are woven throughout my life and have played a seeding stimulus throughout it. Light reading turns out not very light at all, but the light of a lifetime.

Superposition

“We choose to examine a phenomenon (the double-slit experiment) that is impossible, absolutely impossible, to explain in any classical way, and which has in it the heart of quantum mechanics. In reality, it contains the only mystery." ~ Richard Feynman

Thomas Young (1773-1829), a British physician, conducted the double-slit experiment that changed the world. When light is projected from a single source, through two slits, onto a backstop, the interference pattern created indicated light consisted of waves vs. the corpuscles of Sir Isaac Newton.

The astounding part is that when light, electrons, atoms, or even molecules are fired at the double slits over a period of time the same interference patterns occur—even when the objects are fired one at a time! Molecules as large as bucky balls, a molecule of 60 or more carbon atoms arranged in a sphere, fired singly, produce interference patterns. If the particle is not observed going through the slits, it goes through both, arriving at its destination and causing an interference pattern—it has interfered with itself.

The single particle going through the slits is said to have superposition until it is observed. The principle of superposition claims that while we do not know what the state of any object is, it is actually in all possible states simultaneously until we look to check. It is the measurement itself that causes the object to be limited to a single possibility. Should the single particle trajectories be observed, the measurement disrupts the trajectories and the results of the experiment become what would be predicted by classical physics: two bright lines on the photographic plate, aligned with the slits in the barrier. Cease the attempt to measure, and the pattern resumes multiple lines in varying degrees of lightness and darkness.

In 1935, Erwin Schrödinger proposed a thought experiment showing how superposition operates in the every day world: the somewhat horrific Schrödinger’s cat. Schrödinger places his living cat into a chamber, with a vial of hydrocyanic acid and a small amount of radioactive substance. If an atom of the substance decays, a mechanism breaks the vial and kills the cat. An outside observer cannot know whether the cat is alive or dead. Since he cannot know, the cat is both dead and alive according to quantum superposition states. It is only when we open the box and learn the condition of the cat that superposition is lost, and the cat becomes dead or alive. This situation is called “quantum indeterminacy” or “the observer's paradox:” the observation or measurement itself affects an outcome, so that the outcome as such does not exist until observation happens. There is no outcome until observed.

“My own suspicion is that the universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.” ~J.B.S. Haldane

Elder Think

“Getting old isn’t for sissies.” ~ Bette Davis

Western societies focus on the negative aspects of aging, but there are plenty of positives, too. Freud wrote some of his greatest works after age 65; Sophocles wrote Oedipus at Colonus at age 71.

Few of the developmental psychologists, however, spent much on mature mental development. Jean Piaget ended mental development with “formal operations,” abstract thinking maturing in the teen years. Erik Erikson delineated eight stages of psychosocial development, defining each in terms of an issue or conflict requiring resolution before advancing. His work, Identity and the Life Cycle, had only one page each on the last two stages of life.

In spite of their omissions, there are four distinct development stages in late life:

1. Midlife Revaluation: This isn’t the same as mid-life crisis, but is a quest, a desire to break new ground and answer deep questions such as “What is a true and meaningful life?” This period generally occurs between 40- and 65-years of age.

2. Liberation: This overlaps the midlife reevaluation period since it runs from late 50s through the 70s. It is a period experimentation, innovation, and striving to free oneself from earlier inhibitions and limitations. The brain undergoes significant physiological changes giving more balance between the hemispheres. Attitude becomes, “If not now, when?”

3. Summing Up: From late 60s through 80s, one recapitulates, resolves, reviews, with manifestations being volunteerism and philanthropy, a giving back.

4. Encore: This variation on a theme manifests as a desire to go on, even through adversity and loss, to remain vital, and often leads to new creativity and social engagement.

Each of these energizes power motivations, especially when not impaired with negative illusions of aging. Previously, an assumption that the brain could not generate new neurons, and one could merely delay deterioration, formed such an impediment. Scientifically, these are disproven and one can indeed generate new capabilities with activities such as exercising mentally, physically, adopting challenging leisure activities, seek mastery of various skills and activities, and establish strong social networks.

“All that is valuable in human society depends upon the opportunity for development accorded the individual. ~ Albert Einstein